Could Zeon have taken Jaburo without the White base?

[Gelgoog Jager]

During the war the Feds production capabilities were fine, they were able to make hundreds if not thousands of GMs, regular RGM-79, in a 2-3 month period on top of making all their other units. The only time they really have issues with production is after 0083. Though that was caused by financial problems rather than a lack of production capabilities.

Yeah losing California base did affect their production capabilities but most GMs were made at Jaburo and Luna-II IIRC, which considering how many they made in a short period really shows it wasn't that big of a deal in terms of production. Even without California base their production capabilities were still significantly better than Zeon's.

Some of the existing figures claim that Jaburo only rolled as few as 330 GM: 42 early types and 288 late types (the difference supposedly being that the early types lacked space use equipment).

Another figure is that the EF only had a total of 600 "RX MS" for their space campaign. To make matters worse, at times there is a confusion of with this term of "RX MS" used by the EF (Mark has pointed out that at times it is uncertian if such term includes RB-79 Balls, derived from the RX-76 project).

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/archive/msv3.html

Them building 228 ships instead of 340 for the V plan had more to do with time than a lack of capabilities. AFAIK there is nothing really that says they couldn't build the ships and it is simply that they didn't.

"Meanwhile, the Vinson Plan and the personnel reinforcement plan were preparations for the coming space counteroffensive, with the goal of organizing an armada of 340 vessels and training their crews. It proved possible to construct these spaceships very quickly, and 228 vessels were ultimately commissioned. However, many of these vessels were only modified Columbus-class space carriers and Public-type assault boats, so it is hard to say whether the plan was truly a success."

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/archive/msv3.html

Where are you getting that the GM is accident prone? The only thing I can think of that might imply that is MS IGLOO when the GMs broke down while chasing the Zudah. I forget which topic but didn't Mark say that the Zaku II has a higher breakdown rate than the GM?

"Although the existing GM was an accident-prone machine due to its rushed development"

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/arch ... ndam3.html

As for the breakdown ratio, you msut refer to thsi thread, in which I also pointed MArk hwo toher sources contradict this, to which he agreed:

http://www.mechatalk.net/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=13365

Weren't the Act-Zaku and Galbaldy alpha Pezun MS? If so losing their earth bases didn't really affect them. Wait how would Whitebase show up at Jaburo and convince them to go for broke with OP Odessa? Odessa was over before they got to Jaburo.

Sorry, I didn't understand what did you meant regarding the MS develoepd at Pezun (I do should point out that Pezun is an asteroid that seems to have remained close to Side 3 and beyond the conflict during the OYW) have anything to do with the topic at hand. As for the impact that White Base had:

"Garma Zabi's death then gave the Federation Forces an opening for their counteroffensive. With the Zeon forces having lost their commander, the Federation Forces dispatched large forces from their Alaska and Panama bases, and began advancing on the California Base from the north and south. Their next counteroffensive was carried out in the central region of Eurasia. The operation was codenamed "Odessa," and the Federation Forces threw roughly a third of their terrestrial fighting strength into this operation."

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/archive/msv3.html

I'll address some of the other points at a later time since I'm falling sleep right now.

[RGM-79 GM]

"Meanwhile, the Vinson Plan and the personnel reinforcement plan were preparations for the coming space counteroffensive, with the goal of organizing an armada of 340 vessels and training their crews. It proved possible to construct these spaceships very quickly, and 228 vessels were ultimately commissioned. However, many of these vessels were only modified Columbus-class space carriers and Public-type assault boats, so it is hard to say whether the plan was truly a success."

For the V plan that says they could quickly build the ships and mentions nothing on whether there were problems in making them. Overall success isn't related to them having production problems.

"Although the existing GM was an accident-prone machine due to its rushed development"

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/arch ... ndam3.html

As for the breakdown ratio, you msut refer to thsi thread, in which I also pointed MArk hwo toher sources contradict this, to which he agreed:

That is one thing saying the GM is accident prone. AFAIK there is nothing else to even hint at this being the case, again apart from IGLOO. Basically I mean as nothing else states that it seems like something the original author thought up and wrote in the book. All he said about the GM's 80% rate was "As for the GM, this seems to be a plain and simple contradiction between the two sources, c'est la vie." That isn't really agreeing or disagreeing.

Sorry, I didn't understand what did you meant regarding the MS develoepd at Pezun (I do should point out that Pezun is an asteroid that seems to have remained close to Side 3 and beyond the conflict during the OYW) have anything to do with the topic at hand. As for the impact that White Base had:

"Garma Zabi's death then gave the Federation Forces an opening for their counteroffensive. With the Zeon forces having lost their commander, the Federation Forces dispatched large forces from their Alaska and Panama bases, and began advancing on the California Base from the north and south. Their next counteroffensive was carried out in the central region of Eurasia. The operation was codenamed "Odessa," and the Federation Forces threw roughly a third of their terrestrial fighting strength into this operation."

Mentioned them since Zeonista said something about them not being made or under produced because the Zeon lost earth based production sites. All I was talking about with Whitebase at the point was how it couldn't get to Jaburo and then influence OP Odessa.

[Tangerine]

I'm still trying to find what Gelgoog Jager said about Lunar Mass Driver. I can't find enough and even wiki only said it was used on Feb 0079 to launch MS from Lunar to participate on Zeon Earth Invasion. However, I did find something that said Zeon also used it to launch something else, like big rock to bombard the Earth's surface. This mythical bombardment said to be able to destroy a portion of the city. My question is, is this official or is it just fan stuff or game-related only? If it's real in UC why stopped? Does the antartic treaty banned it or something happened to disturb the mass driver?

[Xenosynth]

Could it be talking about 0081? In 0081, the Zeon campaign is about using the Lunar mass driver to target earth, and only in the Zeon ending do they win, in the Feddie ending, the mass driver is destroyed. Otherwise I don't know much about the Lunar Mass Driver being used.

[Tangerine]

I assume 0081 is a game? I don't know much about Gundam related games. By you mean "to target earth", with what? Rock, debris, bombs?

Another thing came to mind. Just how large rock they need to launch in order to get enough impact to be effective anyway? I imagine the earth atmosphere burn things up quite a bit. No to mention guidance problem and just how ridiculously easy it is to be intercepted by patrols who could use MP cannon to destroy it. This doesn't sounds right even for Zeon-Zabi mad science or am I missing something.

[Gelgoog Jager]

For the V plan that says they could quickly build the ships and mentions nothing on whether there were problems in making them. Overall success isn't related to them having production problems.

However, many of these vessels were only modified Columbus-class space carriers and Public-type assault boats, so it is hard to say whether the plan was truly a success."

Not only the Vinson plan failed to reach its target of 340 ships by almsot one third, but this particular comment indicates disappointment with the fact that many of the ships that do were built were only support ships and small combat vessels, instead of combat crusiers and battleships.

The Ball itself is another indication that EF production capabilities were behind their own expectations. Let's consider this: we are told that the a Ball cost 1/4 as much as GM, therefore we could say that EF choose to convert 1,200 Balls rather than build 300 GMs. However, that still means that there were enough pilots for these 1,200 Balls, but it's quite likely that these pilots were originally meant to pilot GMs instead of Balls, which would indicate that EF failed to produce enough MS for them and therefore fell back on the conversion of Balls in order to field more units.

Last but not least, there's this:

The Postwar Settlement

Historically speaking, the war ended in a defeat for Zeon. In fact, however, it would be more appropriate to call the Earth Federation a defeated nation. In order to win the conflict at any cost, the Federation government applied all its national resources to the prosecution of the war. This made the postwar settlement even more difficult.

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/archive/msv3.html

While the EF does seem to have a more stable situation by 0083, the extensive use of Zeon MS does seem to hint that the EF MS production capabilties were insufficient to cover their own demand, even in a period of relative peace. IIRC, Mark even pointed out that the RGM-79Cs at Torrington Base actually arrived at the base not too long before the events of Operation Stardust, hinting that it's possible that the only MS assigned at the base before then were the MS-06F2s.

That is one thing saying the GM is accident prone. AFAIK there is nothing else to even hint at this being the case, again apart from IGLOO. Basically I mean as nothing else states that it seems like something the original author thought up and wrote in the book. All he said about the GM's 80% rate was "As for the GM, this seems to be a plain and simple contradiction between the two sources, c'est la vie." That isn't really agreeing or disagreeing.

What we do know for certain is that the version of the Zaku only having a 60% operational ration seems false, given that there is a lot of claims indicating the opposite. The MS-06J is said to be capable of operating 24/7, the MS-06FZ (upgraded from regular MS-06F units) is said be a machine easy to mantain, and then there's the large number of Zaku used by undersupplied units (during and after the OYW) that are still combat capable.

On the other hand, I don't think we have evidence that could prove that the GM is not an accident prone machine, specially considering that the bulk of the produced standard GMs were part of large fleets which could keep them constantly resupplied. I do should point out that the opposite do is true in the case of more specialzied units such as the RGM-79[G].

Mentioned them since Zeonista said something about them not being made or under produced because the Zeon lost earth based production sites. All I was talking about with Whitebase at the point was how it couldn't get to Jaburo and then influence OP Odessa.

We know that Zeon's most known production facilities were at the Granada Lunar Base and California Base. On the other hand, Pezun seems to have been a base used mainly for research, rather than for mass producing MS. Still, like most larger Zeon bases, it should have had some MS production capabilities.

As for the lunar mass drivers:

U.C. 0079.02 (MID)

Using mass drivers on the lunar surface, the Principality of Zeon begins attacking target areas on Earth. The attacks continue until these facilities are destroyed by the remnants of the Federation fleet.
* Source: Gundam Officials.

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/timeline.php

The Gihren's Greed video games even depict one such mass driver being used to attack Jaburo's defenses before proceding with a colony drop on Jaburo (one of the possible tactics to be used on the game):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NkEUnS0ScfQ

In 0081, the purpose of Operation Tears of Varuna is to recapture a lunar mass driver and use it to conduct attacks on Earth in the same fashion. In the Zeon ending, the mass driver gets damaged and can only fire once (or rather can no longer be aimed at other targets).

There's also a theme about shooting stars and wishes, which mainly involves the Zeon characters, and where Erik Blanke (the main Zeon character) activates the mass driver, while saying something along the lines of:

"Tsukurimono dato sitemo, negai no hitotsu gurai kanaetemisero"

Someone told me that this could be translated roughly as:

"Even though it's a man-made thing, I'll show that I can make at least this one wish come true."

Supposedly, the mass driver targeted and destroyed Augusta Base.

Edit: Found the video of the Zeon ending:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzh51Nzqs18

[RGM-79 GM]

Not only the Vinson plan failed to reach its target of 340 ships by almsot one third, but this particular comment indicates disappointment with the fact that many of the ships that do were built were only support ships and small combat vessels, instead of combat crusiers and battleships.

And again there is nothing to indicate that it was because they couldn't build them. It is much more likely that they didn't due to time. I'm sure they would have preferred combat cruisers and battleships however it would take much longer to build them, train their crews, and supply them compared to the publics and the columbus classes. There is nothing showing the Feds as having a lack of production capabilities until after 0083 and even then that was most likely due to money rather than not having production facilities.

The Ball itself is another indication that EF production capabilities were behind their own expectations. Let's consider this: we are told that the a Ball cost 1/4 as much as GM, therefore we could say that EF choose to convert 1,200 Balls rather than build 300 GMs. However, that still means that there were enough pilots for these 1,200 Balls, but it's quite likely that these pilots were originally meant to pilot GMs instead of Balls, which would indicate that EF failed to produce enough MS for them and therefore fell back on the conversion of Balls in order to field more units.

That was due to time. They could produce plenty of GMs just not fast enough for the space offensive. Which is a time issue not a production issue.

Historically speaking, the war ended in a defeat for Zeon. In fact, however, it would be more appropriate to call the Earth Federation a defeated nation. In order to win the conflict at any cost, the Federation government applied all its national resources to the prosecution of the war. This made the postwar settlement even more difficult.

Yeah the Federation was in bad shape after the war but that is a financial issue and has nothing to do with production.

While the EF does seem to have a more stable situation by 0083, the extensive use of Zeon MS does seem to hint that the EF MS production capabilties were insufficient to cover their own demand, even in a period of relative peace. IIRC, Mark even pointed out that the RGM-79Cs at Torrington Base actually arrived at the base not too long before the events of Operation Stardust, hinting that it's possible that the only MS assigned at the base before then were the MS-06F2s.

The use of Zeon MS is because the Federation Government is cheap. Do you honestly think that they could completely rebuild and upgrade their space forces on top of building hundreds if not thousands of RGM-79Cs and RB-79Cs while they had production problems? Honestly I'm not surprised that the base lacked RGM-79Cs again the Government is cheap and after the OYW, particularly in Unicorn, Torrington base was basically left to rot.

What we do know for certain is that the version of the Zaku only having a 60% operational ration seems false, given that there is a lot of claims indicating the opposite. The MS-06J is said to be capable of operating 24/7, the MS-06FZ (upgraded from regular MS-06F units) is said be a machine easy to mantain, and then there's the large number of Zaku used by undersupplied units (during and after the OYW) that are still combat capable.

On the other hand, I don't think we have evidence that could prove that the GM is not an accident prone machine, specially considering that the bulk of the produced standard GMs were part of large fleets which could keep them constantly resupplied. I do should point out that the opposite do is true in the case of more specialzied units such as the RGM-79[G].

Not really, to me atleast, due to the problems Zeon had with getting everyone fully supplied, which would cause their gear to enter a state of disrepair, so I could see that it has an average operational rate of 60% due to that. Even if the Zaku is highly reliable the kind of abuse they would have suffered and lack of proper repairs and maintenance would cause them to break down. That is just how I interpret the 60% operational rate.

Except as I said literally nothing shows the GM having any kind of reliability problems. I'd call it being shown not having any kind of reliability problems as better evidence than one comment in a book when it is never shown to be accurate in any anime, manga, novels, or anything else. However I can see the first 42 GMs as being unreliable.

We know that Zeon's most known production facilities were at the Granada Lunar Base and California Base. On the other hand, Pezun seems to have been a base used mainly for research, rather than for mass producing MS. Still, like most larger Zeon bases, it should have had some MS production capabilities.

Really not the point. I was just asking Zeonista how losing their Earth production sites would affect Pezun's production facilities. Nothing more than that.

[Gelgoog Jager]

And again there is nothing to indicate that it was because they couldn't build them. It is much more likely that they didn't due to time. I'm sure they would have preferred combat cruisers and battleships however it would take much longer to build them, train their crews, and supply them compared to the publics and the columbus classes. There is nothing showing the Feds as having a lack of production capabilities until after 0083 and even then that was most likely due to money rather than not having production facilities.

That was due to time. They could produce plenty of GMs just not fast enough for the space offensive. Which is a time issue not a production issue.

It wasn't a time issue:

Were it not for the help of civilians (including children), Operation V would have been greatly delayed, and there might have been no choice but to cancel Operation Star One, the attack on the Zeon space fortresses of Solomon and A Baoa Qu which was scheduled for December of that year.

http://www.ultimatemark.com/gundam/arch ... ndam3.html

Operation Star One had always been scheduled for December, the attack on Jaburo didn't led the EF to make a drastic change of plans and launch ahead of schedule. Furthermore, this paragraph also indicates that Operation V and the Vinson Plan (both plans were drafted at the same time) must have been scheduled with that date on mind, meaning that the EF did intentend to built all 340 ships before the assault on December.

On the other hand, what the attack of Jaburo did provoke was the recapture of a poorly defended California Base and its production facilities. That assault wasn't planned, yet it was carried out as soon as possible. Furthermore, we know that the EF didn't spare any time into starting the mass production of GMs at California Base. All these point towards a lack of production capacity at Jaburo, which required them to recapture California Base in order to expand it. This is echoed in a translation provided by Mark:

The first production run of the RGM-79 took up about 70 percent of the production lines centered at Jaburo, which were put into full operation. Some were also produced at Luna II, but the number was small compared to Jaburo, and full-scale production of the RGM-79 at Luna II only began with the second production run, which included variations.

In addition to the normal RGM-79, a few trainer types were also produced during the first production run. These were used for training pilots and transitioning them from other machines.

As the RGM-79 was gradually deployed on the front lines, pilots began to demand performance improvements, due to its lack of firepower and poor mobility against the latest MS-07 and MS-09 types. But the Federation Forces were focused on mass production of the RGM-79 type, and tended to ignore these demands. The RGC-80, and an RGM-79L type with improved mobility, were included in the second production run as supplemental orders. However, they accounted for fewer than one-tenth of the total number.

[...]

During the third production run, the RGM-79 and RGC-80 were produced at Jaburo. At Luna II, production of the RGM-79SC high-end model began in addition to the RGM-79, yielding 24 early production units.

After the war, it was revealed that the third production run also included the RGM-79V, which was developed for use by special forces teams. As these teams were organized in secret, and their activities were not disclosed, the production of these specialized machines was also a confidential matter.

The fourth production run began while the third was still in progress, but at this point the production system itself was somewhat altered. Thanks to their counteroffensive operations, the Federation Forces had recaptured many military bases and manufacturing facilities and begun refitting them, thus expanding their production sites.

Licensed production of some key RGM-79 parts began at various places. On Earth, where the RGM-79 had taken up 70 percent of Jaburo's production lines, this was reduced to 40 percent as production of ships and aircraft resumed. The eliminated RGM-79 production lines were relocated to the recaptured California Base, and during the fourth production run, roughly 60 percent of all units were manufactured at the California Base.

The RGM-79SC, which appeared in the final stage of the war, was developed for skilled pilots. Its basic design began just after the first production run of the RGM-79 was completed, and it was meant to be included in the second production run. The large number of design changes, however, required changes in operating system maintenance as well, and so it was postponed. Higher performance had resulted in lower production efficiency, although not to the same degree as with the RX-78.

-- Mark

http://www.mechatalk.net/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=14896

So there you have it: Jaburo did lacked production capabilties and the recapture of California Base was a keystone in the later stages of the mass production of the GM during the OYW. Which means that the EF's production capabilties would have been far lower had the conditions for retaking California Base (Garma's death, Char following White Base to Jaburo and the improvised assault on Jaburo) not been met and the base remained under Zeon control.

Not really, to me atleast, due to the problems Zeon had with getting everyone fully supplied, which would cause their gear to enter a state of disrepair, so I could see that it has an average operational rate of 60% due to that. Even if the Zaku is highly reliable the kind of abuse they would have suffered and lack of proper repairs and maintenance would cause them to break down. That is just how I interpret the 60% operational rate.

No offense, but I have no idea how could you possibly interprete it that way, given that the operational ratio is given specifically to the Zaku. You basically twisted that into undersupplied Zeon forces on Earth. By your own logic, that would mean that EF's was also lacking in the supply and maintenance of their MS, which is certainly not the case, and it's precisely what allowed the GMs to remain operational for combat during the EF's space offensive, despite the GM being an accident prone machine.

Except as I said literally nothing shows the GM having any kind of reliability problems. I'd call it being shown not having any kind of reliability problems as better evidence than one comment in a book when it is never shown to be accurate in any anime, manga, novels, or anything else. However I can see the first 42 GMs as being unreliable.

You yourself pointed out that there do is an example where 4 brand new GMs malfunctioned while pursuing the Zudah, a MS that can also be classified as an accident prone machine, which is the very reason it lost to the Zaku I to begin with. And by your own logic, the Zaku doesn't have any reliability problems, as not even units used by undersupplied groups you mentioned seemed to have any notable operational issues, even if some of them have been poorly mantained due to a lack of supplies.

[RGM-79 GM]

Were it not for the help of civilians (including children), Operation V would have been greatly delayed, and there might have been no choice but to cancel Operation Star One, the attack on the Zeon space fortresses of Solomon and A Baoa Qu which was scheduled for December of that year.

Operation Star One had always been scheduled for December, the attack on Jaburo didn't led the EF to make a drastic change of plans and launch ahead of schedule. Furthermore, this paragraph also indicates that Operation V and the Vinson Plan (both plans were drafted at the same time) must have been scheduled with that date on mind, meaning that the EF did intentend to built all 340 ships before the assault on December.

On the other hand, what the attack of Jaburo did provoke was the recapture of a poorly defended California Base and its production facilities. That assault wasn't planned, yet it was carried out as soon as possible. Furthermore, we know that the EF didn't spare any time into starting the mass production of GMs at California Base. All these point towards a lack of production capacity at Jaburo, which required them to recapture California Base in order to expand it. This is echoed in a translation provided by Mark:

What? It says that it might have been delayed meaning they weren't ready in time. Not that they couldn't do it just that it would take too long pushing back their attack. Seriously you are trying to say that they can't make them due to the fact that they can't produce enough of them but this says that they just almost weren't ready fast enough.

No it doesn't it points towards that at Jaburo they could produce the GMs if they wanted to but decided to produce them at a base that had production facilities specifically for MS and have Jaburo go back to making ships. That is actually exactly what Mark said. They lowered GM production at Jaburo from 70% to 40% in order to make more ships and aircraft. Then it also says the with the 4th production run about 60% of GMs were made at California. Nothing there says anything even close to Jaburo lacked the production facilities.

On Earth, where the RGM-79 had taken up 70 percent of Jaburo's production lines, this was reduced to 40 percent as production of ships and aircraft resumed. The eliminated RGM-79 production lines were relocated to the recaptured California Base, and during the fourth production run, roughly 60 percent of all units were manufactured at the California Base.

No offense, but I have no idea how could you possibly interprete it that way, given that the operational ratio is given specifically to the Zaku. You basically twisted that into undersupplied Zeon forces on Earth. By your own logic, that would mean that EF's was also lacking in the supply and maintenance of their MS, which is certainly not the case, and it's precisely what allowed the GMs to remain operational for combat during the EF's space offensive, despite the GM being an accident prone machine.

Why would I be offended? I look at it like that as I feel that the Zakus operational rate should be higher than 60%, and that is the only way I could possibly see it as being at 60%. Cause I said the Feds were poorly supplied? Seriously where are you pulling that from? Look dude we have conflicting info on the GM's reliability. You keep jumping on that one line and you also said Mark agreed with you, which as I said he didn't since he just said they contradict. Show me an incident where a GM is shown to suffer from poor reliability. As in someone says something like it happened because it is unreliable or something like that.

You yourself pointed out that there do is an example where 4 brand new GMs malfunctioned while pursuing the Zudah, a MS that can also be classified as an accident prone machine, which is the very reason it lost to the Zaku I to begin with. And by your own logic, the Zaku doesn't have any reliability problems, as not even units used by undersupplied groups you mentioned seemed to have any notable operational issues, even if some of them have been poorly mantained due to a lack of supplies.

I never said they malfunctioned. I said that is the only thing that could imply that the GM is unreliable. We don't know what happened to those GMs. The pilots could have turned off their limiters and pushed the MS too hard but in the end we have no idea what caused it. Go back and look at my post if you need to but I never said the GMs malfunctioned. I said they broke down, which again we have no idea why they did. Could be pilot error, a problem with the GMs, or something else.

To be fair nothing is ever really shown to be unreliable within the animation except when the Ground Gundams had some issue with sand clogging their filters in 08th MS team. Most of the undersupplied units we see are the guys after the OYW who had been scavenging the parts they needed. There is just a lack of info on both sides and both the GM and Zaku II have been called very reliable units and both have something implying that isn't true. The GM with the accident prone machine and the Zaku with a 60% operational rate. Now going by what we are shown both are very reliable which is what, IMO, should matter more than the 60% and accident prone machine.

[Tangerine]

While I tend to agree with RGM but what Gelgoog Jager said also true about EF lacked production capabilities, at least to some degree. The unfulfilled Vinson Plan may indicate the problems faced by EF to produce such quantity of ships. However, it is also logical if they tend use Vinson Plan as a guidelines and eventually building out ships that are really needed specifically for the upcoming operation. Probably those cheap and easy to produce Publics and Columbus classes are what the EF really need, compared to the more multi role but expensive cruisers. We can say it's quantity over quality for the EF which again raised the question whether they really lack production related issues. Time issue maybe more fitting since in such a short time the EF need to fulfill quota of ships and MSs, and we know what do they prioritize this time around after the hard lesson from Loum. Besides, the Columbus packed with GMs and Ball-s has roughly same fighting power against the Principality forces compared to Salamis packed with same number (if not fewer) of GMs and Ball-s. So this is not a fully downgrade but rather a clever solution to make things easier.

In the end even if the EF lacked production capabilities they still produce (arguably) many more than the Principality could produce. They researched, developed, produce and catch up with what they lacked in just several months time. During that as a newplayer to MS technology, EF wanted to do too many things at single given time that clouded their production run. Unlike the more experienced Principality war factory, the EF simply has too many R&D going on to make this happen. But the EF ultimately deliver, unlike the lately available Dom or the Gelgoog the EF still managed to field their product in time. The recapture of basses simply added their production capabilities even more.

Overall, what Gelgoog Jager said about lacking production capability is in essence derived from the EF various "projects" that want to do many alternations, variations and even new types. The EF simply can't do all of that. But that doesn't translate that they have production issues, nor that it prove that the EF industrial strength is lacking. It's just simply a narrow vision with limited scope that saw EF inability to do all of those things at once as lacking production capabilities. While we know the EF simply prioritize what they really need and build it without problems. Furthermore just like in the MS department, the EF still managed to rebuild their space armada from total zilch save from what's leftover from Luna II. This also in support of their industrial strength.

[Zeonista]

Came back to this one to do a renewed look at the necessary features. In order to take Jaburo reasonably intact, instead of destroying it outright, ZMF needs some contributing factors to be present.

1. MS have to be used as the primary strike weapon. Zeon does not have enough conventional weapons available, and could not concentrate the requisite number in Brazil even if they wanted to. The aptly named "mobile suit" force has to do the job, with some infantry to be delivered later to help take control.

2. Jaburo's defenses are designed around defense against an outward threat, and especially one arriving by air. The specialized Marine MS tunneling operation would be very useful! If not available, Marine MS teams like the Mad Anglers could find the subterranean access routes used in the anime. The interior attack will split the defenders, and give the external MS force an advantage after they penetrate the external gun batteries.

3. Jaburo is also the main source of production for RGM-79 GM MS on Earth. If intel suggests the GMs are nearing completion and can be deployed, the available machines must be neutralized in some fashion, prior to the attack. Otherwise the attacking Zeon MS will encounter many GMs, and get sucked into MS battles as well as fighting the conventional forces of the defense. Success will become difficult, if not impossible!

4. Any event or operation apart from the attack on Jaburo itself that can delay the deployment of completed RGM-79 MS will definitely improve the chance of success.

5. Any event or operation that could further postpone Operation Odessa or cause its cancellation will increase chances of success, possibly to a guaranteed level. The longer it takes EFF high command to decide to give the orders to assemble the Odessa force and deploy it, the more MS & transport thereof the ZMF will have available for the Jaburo operation, and the less forces the EFF will have available to counter it.

6. Any event or operation that results in White Base and the RX-78-2 Gundam being captured or destroyed can only help. The "legged ship" is the EFF's wild card, and they cause no end of damage and delay in 6 weeks on Earth. Get rid of the heroes before they succeed in inspiring the grunts of the EFF to fight harder!

7. Since California Base will inevitably contributing the greatest amount of resources to the operation, make sure the EFF is not able to inhibit the deployment of those resources. This means active countermeasures, not just trying to play defense across the southern half of old California.

So tell me oh armchair generals of MAHQ, what can you do as commander of ZMF forces on Earth to follow any and all steps above to take Jaburo Base?

EDIT: Alternate condition 8. For the true Gihren-sama option, consider the Antarctic Treaty more of a guideline in assisting the attack's success than a strict rule. The ZMF is outnumbered, time is of the essence, and the winners get to write history to their best advantage.

[RGM-79G GM Command]

There's still some issues with that though.

1. If they need to capture it, infantry needs to be there with the MS, MS can't capture locations for the same reason tanks can't. It'd be much too easy for the remaining Federal Forces to destroy anything of value before Zeon infantry got there, which would invalidate the entire attack. Though, while yes they'd likely use pretty much only MS, don't forget that most of their earth based forces ARE conventional forces, not MS. On Earth Zeon seemed to have very few MS compared to their space-based counter-parts. Zeon mostly had non-MS units since they were faster and cheaper to produce.

2. The issue with that would be that the timing would be off, they'd need to FIND the right tunnels for either of those operations, which would either cause the air dropped forces to attack before or after the aquatic forces had begun their operation. I'd say them attacking after makes more sense, but even then they couldn't possibly launch both attacks at the same time, which would be better for the Federation.

On top of that, this hinged on having both enough MS and MA forces to work, but the disaster that was Operation Odessa not only claimed most of their MS, but slowed down development of most of their ground-based MA units. They simply didn't have the ability to launch an attack on Jaburo as they'd intended in a post-Odessa war.

3. Problem is they had absolutely no idea there were GMs there, they had no intel about what was in Jaburo. Look at the reactions of Char's team for evidence. People like Char suspected the Federation would have MS obviously, but they didn't know where, how many, or even if they were done. Basically they couldn't neutralize the GMs prior to them being completed, though they WERE already completed by the time Zeon did attack, because they have no way of knowing when the GMs would be finished, and no matter what they did, they'd attack after the machines were done anyway.

4. Seeing as the GMs were already done, I'm really not sure what Zeon could do for this one since they have no method of knowing anything about the GMs.

5. Again, there's nothing that could slow Odessa down. Not in the way you seem to be implying at any rate. But if anything this would be better for the Federation due to one thing, they'd have more time to get the GMs finished and deploy them in Odessa, along with that, they'd likely have more forces to deploy from Jaburo, not less. I'm not sure why you'd think Zeon would increase their numbers here while the Federation loses them.

6. By this point though, post death of Garma, White Base has done most of it's damage already. This would also be after the Gundam took out the Adzam. The only major things they didn't do in this situation would be killing Ramba Ral and the Tri-Stars, neither of which would change the tide of the war.

7. The problem here is that regardless of everything they did, only 28 Zeon MS LANDED, which apparently includes the aquatic MS in the battle, most of their forces were destroyed before they even landed. Last I heard, the deployment was around 45-60 MS, which was practically all the MS that California base had left.

According to Ultimate Mark, they were so weakened by the attack on Jaburo, that California base was captured on 12/05/79, a short six days after the attack on Jaburo. They had practically nothing left, most of the other Zeon forces had already fled to space so there's no one to defend the California base forces. However, as shown by them managing to launch an attack, the issue wasn't keeping the forces from California safe, it was keeping them alive long enough to actually land as the majority were shot down in the air.

8. Only issue with this is that the goal is the capture of the base. But even so, I'm not sure what weapons Zeon could have deployed. They really don't have many nukes, and I don't see them dropping another colony. Plus, if they DID do something like that, you can bet Torrington's nukes would be used against them pretty quick.

[Kratos]

The repeal of the Antarctic Treaty would mean pretty little. Nukes can't touch Jaburo; the worst Zeon could do with anything short of a colony drop is ruin the South American ecosystem.

[supatantei]

I think this is a great what if thought experiment, but we need to clarify the question.

If we are to address the Whitebase was destroyed in the Gobi by Ramba Ral, would Jaburo been taken?

If the OP’s question was in regards to Char’s marine attack, I have doubts that it may have happened.

If WB never makes it past Ramba, then:

1. The Black Tri-Stars and Ramba’s remaining forces would have been deployed at Odessa for that battle, probably significantly impacting the battle.

2. With the loss of Amuro and Gundam, the Adzam would not have been destroyed and most likely deployed during the same battle.

3. If M’quve decided to still go with the nuclear missile, it would have succeeded in being detonated since no one would have penetrated enough to be able to cut it down.

After this everything goes to hell since the Antarctic Treaty has been violated. Assuming that for whatever reason that did not start a 2nd human genocide, then there would be no Whitebase for Char to follow to follow to Jaburo.

If we are just discussing the battle of Jaburo sans Whitebase, then I think it could have gone two ways.

1. If Char still has plot contrivance powers, then he would have caused untold destruction to the EFF; even possibility causing the down fall of EFF HQ. I say this because, this is the man that assaulted Luna II with 1 Musai and 3 Zakus. If it wasn’t for those pesky WB kids being all tenacious, just imagine what would have happened. This time Char had high performance covert marine commandos; this would not have boded well for the EFF.

2. If we take away Char’s magic powers and just consider this a logistical battle then I think the EFF would have still won. In the middle of the fight, we have a section where we see General Gopp talking at HQ. It doesn’t seem like he is worried about the Zeon numbers in the attack. Even assuming WB accounted even for a significant portion of Zeon losses in that battle; for Gobb to be that confident probably meant that EFF probably had enough forces to decimate the air attack. The subsequent underground battle would probably been very costly, but the numerical advantage highly favors the EFF.

I also believe that WB contributions to the war efforts are often underestimated. In chronological order:

1. Prevent V tactics project technology from falling into Zeon hands.

2. They prevent an uncanny commando assault on Luna II. Personally, I don’t like this one, but it did happen. For whatever reason a well-manned EFF space fortress was paralyzed by the attack of a single Musai and its company of forces. This attack was repulsed by the tenacity of the Whitebase crew.

3. They force an uncanny Zeon Commando/Ace/Genius (Char) to leave space theater and go to Earth.

4. They fly around North America decimating Zeon forces (at least everything the command of North American forces [Garma] can afford to throw at them) from Great Canyon (Grand Canyon) to New Yark (New York). Just how many Zeon forces from California base were laid waste chasing after WB while they were fighting all over the US?

5. They kill said commander of North American forces; prompting the first well documented and loss of Zeon forces to both the Zeon people and the Federation. This also leads to the sacking of Zeon Commando/Ace/Genius.

6. Initial WB combat data is retrieved and sent back to Jaburo. As I do not know any sources on this events impacts I cannot confirm nor deny any contribution this may have made to the overall war effort.

7. They destroy the mobile armor Adzam which supposedly should easily destroy mobile suits.

8. They kill Zeon Ace Blue Giant and his forces (though for the war effort we cannot say how effective they may or may not have been).

9. They kill Zeon Ace squad Black Tri-Stars (supposed worth a squad of mobile suits) preventing them from participating in the most critical terrestrial battle of the war. Revil was so afraid of them that he rushes the start of Operation Odessa.

10. They open rear front (from China) at battle of Odessa, this can on non-canon Ghiren’s Greed clips where an arrow from the Northeast clearly indicates White Base. (Though how that may have impacted M’quve battle strategy is dubious).

11. They stop unearth the Zeon spy General working against Revil during the battle, and prevents him from continuing to act against the success of the battle.

12. They then stop M’quve from using a nuclear missile on Federation forces.

13. They then stop what would have been a successful attack on Belfast (as all the forces being commanded by Revil had are handlily beaten); though this is up in the air, as they may be the cause of said attack.

14. They destroy MA Grabro and escort suits. The marine forces shown here and in Belfast were shown to be destroying EFF naval forces earlier.

15. This give away location to WB space port at Jaburo, which directly\indirectly causes subsequent desperation attack on Jaburo. As indicated earlier so many forces had been exhausted in California base (probably both from Jaburo and WB’s earlier march around North America) that it falls shortly thereafter. In this fight they repel Char, stop the bombing of the GM factory, destroy the MA Zock, decimate the cover Zeon MS team, and destroy a large number of attacking Zeon forces.

They accomplish this all in about 2 months. The battle of Jaburo occurs on 11/27 and the attack on Side 7 is on 9/18. And all of this happens before they return to space. They managed to do all this where

[Zeonista]

Nice to see the discussion is still ongoing. As the previous commenters have noted, the devil is in the details when planning a major operation. A lot of uncertainity in the factors is present, which is why most of the good wartime commanders in anime & history look very tired. As armchair generals watching from the sidelines we have a great advantage; make the most of it!

After some thought, I have decided to scrape the alternate condition 8, which was too snarky, and looked like it caused more problems than it was worth. Instead, as a conditional variable of strategic factors not quantifiable by battlefield strength, I propose a new alternate #8. To wit, the Zabi family factionalism, which often proved troublesome when all the mini-cults of personality were struggling for priority. Find some way(s) to speed or direct events in your favor concerning steps 1-7 to avoid unforseen hindrances due to faction. (Dropping M'quve out of a Gaw at 3,000 meters altitude is possible, but I prefer some more positive measures since if Zeon wins everybody will have to get along. )

RGM-79G GM Command: Enough playing devil's advocate, lay out your attack plan. And don't feel restricted by canon timeline, feel free to meddle in your best Gihren's Ambition method. As per your comment on condition 1, I emphasized the MS role because Zeon relied on their MS to make things happen. In canon Char did not have enough time or transport to allow conventional forces to follow up that i know of, which shows what a desperate venture the thing was. Since this operation is non-canon, you are free to allow mobile conventional forces to join the ground combat instead of providing aerial support only.

Kratos: I had originally intended for the use of WMD to be a corollary or diversionary attack to draw away EFF assets from Jaburo itself. But as I said above. things were changed.

supatantei: Thank you for your comments on what an obsession-causing pest White Base turned into for the ZMF. The name "White Death" for the Gundam was well-earned, no matter what Amuro might have cared to remember.

General Revil had good reason to fear the Black Tri-Stars, since they had personally captured him at Loum after helping to destroy his fleet. He had learned that lesson, to never let the ZMF call the shots, because then the EFF's numerical superiority tended to disappear in many explosions. It's probably also why he supported White Base, since they were the EFF's chance at upsetting the odds in turn. Must be something in that "newtype" word the Zeons toss around, ne?