The Official Gundam Unicorn Anime Thread Mk VI

[Arbiter GUNDAM]

Which is interesting seeing as how, 27 years later, the space force can't do jack-diddly-squat against the Crossbone Vanguard.

[ShadowCell]

on the other hand, that's because they haven't faced any significant threat for the past 27 years. it's only after Zeon pretty much disappears that the Federation really begins to atrophy.

[Dendrobium Stamen]

Which is interesting seeing as how, 27 years later, the space force can't do jack-diddly-squat against the Crossbone Vanguard.

Well, that's exactly my point in saying...

...whatever happens with Laplace's Box, it seems this post-Axis period is the last phase of major military investment the Federation will see, before lapsing into complacency by the time of Cosmo Babylonia...

So yes, the EF Government in Dakar gave the Space Force a pretty generous budget in the aftermath of Char's Neo-Zeon, but in the wake of this Laplace's Box Incident and the dissolution of the Zeon Republic four years hence, it seems they didn't spend much at all on anything for the next quarter of a century or so; thus when the Crossbone Vanguard rock up with their state-of-the-art mini-MS, the refurbished Jegan teams and smattering of modern mini-MS the Frontier Side garrison can field are simply no match.

[zetatype]

Also keep in mind that Federation's military is in no position to fight an all out war, which is why they invest a lot into units like ECOAS and Londo Bell whose purpose is to prevent uprisings. The federation lost a lot of military resources during the OYW and Gryps War, and the two Neo Zeon wars certainly didn't help.

While for the most part I do agree with your post, Zetatype, I take issue with the above paragraph... the resources we've seen deployed by the Federation thus far in Unicorn would - if anything - suggest a surge in Space Force spending in the wake of the Second Neo-Zeon War.

Consider, amongst other factors:
- The construction and deployment of the General Revil as part of the Orbital Patrol Fleets.
- Construction and deployment of the ReZEL (and customised models for the General Revil's complement).
- Expanded production of upgraded A2-type and D-type Jegan MS.
- Rollout of the Stark Jegan equipment for the D-type.
- Creation of ECOAS, plus their specialised Jegan De-type, and the first known SNRI product, the Loto.
- A fairly extensive refit of the Nahel Argama to put her into Londo Bell service.
- Development of the Jesta to operate alongside the Unicorn Gundam.
- Development of the Unicorn Gundam (and Unit 02 "Banshee").

Admittedly the terrestrial elements of the Federation Forces get the short end of the stick a bit, but even they have relatively new toys in the forms of the Anksha and Byarlant Custom. So really, the Federation Space Force is on the upswing in UC 0096, if anything - whatever happens with Laplace's Box, it seems this post-Axis period is the last phase of major military investment the Federation will see, before lapsing into complacency by the time of Cosmo Babylonia...

(At some point I intend to finally finish an essay I've been plodding along with for years, about the Federation economy, and how it was Stardust that really caused the Federation's economic stagnation, rather than the OYW...)

Let me elaborate a bit.

Currently the Federation forces are well equipped to handle the remnants of the Neo Zeon fleet should they try to start a conventional war (without the box). I agree that the Federation space forces have been in an upswing since the last Neo Zeon war. If I were to make a graph showing the Federation military strength since 0079, then the OYW would have been the highest point and the first Neo Zeon War would be the lowest point.

However, I'm under the impression that despite this upswing the Federation's military strength is nowhere near what it was during the OYW or the Gryps war. Given how Cardeas Vist mentions that opening Laplace box could cause destruction on an unimaginable scale, I think its safe to assume any war resulting from the box would be as big if not bigger than the OYW. This is why I believe the Federation wouldn't be able to handle a full scale war resulting from the box.

Currently the Federation's Fleet seems to be designed to maintain security rather than to fight a large scale war. Maybe, its a bit of a stretch to say the Federation won't stand a chance if a war broke out as the result of the box being opened, but I doubt the colonies and Neo Zeon would be helpless especially if all the Sides rebelled. There is also the possibility the Federation would see uprisings within its own military as well.

EDIT: Hope you finish the essay soon as the stagnation of the Federation is an interesting topic to me.

[latenlazy]

Also keep in mind that Federation's military is in no position to fight an all out war, which is why they invest a lot into units like ECOAS and Londo Bell whose purpose is to prevent uprisings. The federation lost a lot of military resources during the OYW and Gryps War, and the two Neo Zeon wars certainly didn't help.

While for the most part I do agree with your post, Zetatype, I take issue with the above paragraph... the resources we've seen deployed by the Federation thus far in Unicorn would - if anything - suggest a surge in Space Force spending in the wake of the Second Neo-Zeon War.

Consider, amongst other factors:
- The construction and deployment of the General Revil as part of the Orbital Patrol Fleets.
- Construction and deployment of the ReZEL (and customised models for the General Revil's complement).
- Expanded production of upgraded A2-type and D-type Jegan MS.
- Rollout of the Stark Jegan equipment for the D-type.
- Creation of ECOAS, plus their specialised Jegan De-type, and the first known SNRI product, the Loto.
- A fairly extensive refit of the Nahel Argama to put her into Londo Bell service.
- Development of the Jesta to operate alongside the Unicorn Gundam.
- Development of the Unicorn Gundam (and Unit 02 "Banshee").

Admittedly the terrestrial elements of the Federation Forces get the short end of the stick a bit, but even they have relatively new toys in the forms of the Anksha and Byarlant Custom. So really, the Federation Space Force is on the upswing in UC 0096, if anything - whatever happens with Laplace's Box, it seems this post-Axis period is the last phase of major military investment the Federation will see, before lapsing into complacency by the time of Cosmo Babylonia...

(At some point I intend to finally finish an essay I've been plodding along with for years, about the Federation economy, and how it was Stardust that really caused the Federation's economic stagnation, rather than the OYW...)

This is where military spending gets a bit nuanced. We know that the Federation is procuring newer and better toys, but we don't know if the Federation is making the same investments to expand the size of their military force. It could just be that they're trading off spending on expansion for a better equipped and smaller force, perhaps to guarantee the success of more surgical missions. While the Federation would necessarily need to do a lot of rebuilding after the OWY, Stardust, and the Gryps conflicts, they may not intend to maintain the same fleet sizes and troop levels that they had before their depletion from those wars. Of course, we don't see evidence for or against this, so it's just speculation. Nonetheless, I think that's a possibility that needs to be considered and addressed before we conclude that the Federation Forces are in the "upswing".

Let me elaborate a bit.

Currently the Federation forces are well equipped to handle the remnants of the Neo Zeon fleet should they try to start a conventional war. I agree that the Federation space forces have been in an upswing since the last Neo Zeon war. If I were to make a graph showing the Federation military strength since the 0079, then the OYW would have been the highest point and the first Neo Zeon War would be the lowest point.

However, I'm under the impression that despite this upswing the Federation's military strength is nowhere near what it was during the OYW or the Gryps war. Given how Cardeas Vist mentions that opening Laplace box could cause destruction on an unimaginable scale, I think its safe to assume any war resulting from the box would be as big if not bigger than the OYW. This is why I believe the Federation wouldn't be able to handle a full scale war resulting from the box.

Currently the Federation's Fleet seems to be designed to maintain security rather than to fight a large scale war. Maybe, its a bit of a stretch to say the Federation won't stand a chance if a war broke out as the result of the box being opened, but I doubt the colonies and Neo Zeon would be helpless especially if all the Sides rebelled. There is also the possibility the Federation would see uprisings within its own military as well.

EDIT: Hope you finish the essay soon as the stagnation of the Federation is an interesting topic to me.

I think we're also forgetting the problem of defection. If the Federation waged a war on the colonies that could be seen as unjust, given that the sides are now established as fact the greater economic power collectively, not only would the loss of legitimacy threaten the Federation's industrial capacity to wage war, but they could have great attrition due to the defection of soldiers who may hold their allegiances to their homes over than their military ones.

[yazi88]

One thing I'll add to zetatype's post about the decline of EFF's forces, although it might not be true in aspect to UC's animated continuity, but the Federation is making new units for smaller squadron's rather than just overall increasing their entire forces mostly for security, efficiency and budget control.

For example, in Sentinel Task Force Alpha was given a lot of resources to stop New Decides as they were a threat to Earth Federation leadership like how Londo Bell and ECOAs were treated about a decade later. Federation forces were clearly hurting after the disaster of Gryps Civil War that drained a lot of resources. Even Task Force Alpha didn't escape harm either as they also took a lot of damage in the end.

[Mythgarr]

Do UC has something like CE's Junk Guild that collect and recycle mecha parts to conserve resources?

[Arbiter GUNDAM]

I think we only ever saw something similar on Shangri-La in Gundam ZZ.

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

How is this co-prosperity sphere supposed to be enforced?

At gunpoint, just like the original.

Currently the Federation forces are well equipped to handle the remnants of the Neo Zeon fleet should they try to start a conventional war (without the box).

I'm not sure that what we see in Unicorn supports that conclusion, honestly. As illogical as it is, the Sleeves have been riding pretty roughshod over the EFF. In episode 6, they disarm the EFSF's shiny-new flagship with complete impunity. In episode 4, they organize the destruction of the Earth Federation Assembly as a distraction. The Earth Federation military may be more powerful on paper, but the impression we're left with after watching Unicorn is that the Sleeves can basically do whatever they want. One wonders why the Sleeves are bothering with the box at all, if the Federation is unable to defeat them militarily anyway.

[Chris]

One wonders why the Sleeves are bothering with the box at all, if the Federation is unable to defeat them militarily anyway.

Full Frontal is obviously big on symbolism, given his whole Char shtick. If you know what the Box actually is, it's clear why he wants the symbolism behind what it represents to legitimize his actions.

[ShadowCell]

then again, the Sleeves and the other Zeon remnants seem to be expending all their military power in pursuit of the Box, so i'm not sure it's really a question of whether the Federation needs to defeat them so much as outlast them. and they're very well equipped to do that.

[Cybaster]

Which is interesting seeing as how, 27 years later, the space force can't do jack-diddly-squat against the Crossbone Vanguard.

Well, that's exactly my point in saying...

But even then, the EFSF hasn't completely been in decline to the point of the general incompetence seen with Gundam Wing's hapless OZ pilots or their dismal performance in Victory Gundam; Circe Unit and a good part of the Federation security forces (with a few select exceptions) were still fighting Mafty with nearly even technologies and a reasonable amount of competence in Hathaway's Flash, and in UC0123 you have a variety of separate Federation-based forces nicely holding their own against both the Crossbone Vanguard and Oldsmobile Zeon (i.e. the 13th Autonomous Task Force in Gundam F90, Baz Galemson's anti-Zeon Remnant force in Silhouette Formula 91, and that Federation battle group blitzing the Buffo Conzern's home colony in Gundam F91, to name a few), not to mention SNRI still being active --- and still developing new advanced technologies for the Earth Federation that rivalled even the Jupiter Empire --- all the way up to Crossbone Gundam Steel 7 in UC0136.

It's only in Victory, all the way out 57 years later, and with Anaheim siding with the League Militaire and SNRI becoming BESPA that the Federation's armed forces really start getting nailed in the groin and become outclassed in every single way possible. Before then, though, it's more of a slow, gradual regression for the Earth Federation; The Lafressia's annihilation of an entire Federation fleet single-handedly just overshadowed everything else and made it look like the Federation was dying much quicker than it actually was.

I'm not sure that what we see in Unicorn supports that conclusion, honestly. As illogical as it is, the Sleeves have been riding pretty roughshod over the EFF. In episode 6, they disarm the EFSF's shiny-new flagship with complete impunity. In episode 4, they organize the destruction of the Earth Federation Assembly as a distraction. The Earth Federation military may be more powerful on paper, but the impression we're left with after watching Unicorn is that the Sleeves can basically do whatever they want. One wonders why the Sleeves are bothering with the box at all, if the Federation is unable to defeat them militarily anyway.

Well, the Unicorn novels are basically giant propaganda tools for Japanese Imperalists to inspire the revival of the glorious Dai Nippon Teikoku, anyway; Obviously America can't be shown kicking their a**es a second time with sheer numbers and near-limitless resources, what're you, crazy? (Though in regards to your earlier point to the Greater Co-Prosperity Sphere, I wouldn't be surprised either if the Earth Federation in Unicorn was actually more of an analogue to the Kuomintang of pre-WW2 China than to pre-WW2 America, right down to the Blue Shirts Society.)

That joke aside, though, as Gundam 0083 demonstrated, in the end it really comes down to sheer numbers, and the Earth Federation just has more --- be it manpower or resources. I'm perfectly sure the Sleeves can wreck havoc with the Earth Federation for a few months, a year at best in a full scale war with elite pilots, updated technologies and the resources they still had on hand if they initiated a full-scale, direct war, but unless if they really demoralized the Earth Federation quickly (something Gihren and the Zabis knew was crucial during the opening weeks of the One Year War and had partially used to nearly force the Earth Federation to surrender) and gotten the Federation to give up all hope and surrender, after then there'd be no promises. Even Full Frontal and the Sinanju, as powerful as it was, was bound to run out of propellant sooner or later and would have to return to a ship to recharge, and good luck to him dodging a Beam Magnum then.

[saneman]

How is this co-prosperity sphere supposed to be enforced?

At gunpoint, just like the original.

That was my implication.

then again, the Sleeves and the other Zeon remnants seem to be expending all their military power in pursuit of the Box, so i'm not sure it's really a question of whether the Federation needs to defeat them so much as outlast them. and they're very well equipped to do that.

Merely showing that the Sleeves and other remnants (except Mars Zeon, who by this time would be reaching Mars) are insane. Although they believe otherwise, the Zeonism is discredited ideology (at least as it is). They have no material ability to win the struggle, Laplace's Box isn't EXA-DB, there is no library of war-winning technology to be had. There is no groups that are willing to rise up. Neither the Crossbone Vanguard nor Zanscrare Empire refers to Zionism. Historically Federation has outlasted them.

On separate note, I dearly hope that some nods to F91 is made at the last episode, perhaps a mention of SNRI's rise or formation.

[Andrew_Graruru]

Currently the Federation forces are well equipped to handle the remnants of the Neo Zeon fleet should they try to start a conventional war (without the box).

I'm not sure that what we see in Unicorn supports that conclusion, honestly. As illogical as it is, the Sleeves have been riding pretty roughshod over the EFF. In episode 6, they disarm the EFSF's shiny-new flagship with complete impunity. In episode 4, they organize the destruction of the Earth Federation Assembly as a distraction. The Earth Federation military may be more powerful on paper, but the impression we're left with after watching Unicorn is that the Sleeves can basically do whatever they want. One wonders why the Sleeves are bothering with the box at all, if the Federation is unable to defeat them militarily anyway.

On this note, just what kind of Neo-Zeon opposition are we going to see in Episode 7, anyways? Will there be a fleet battle, or are the sleeves just down to four Musaka's and the Rewloola?

[toysdream]

In the novels, there's a detailed tally of the Neo Zeon fleet that's coming to intercept the Nahel Argama, and the Full Armor Unicorn is created specifically for this massive fleet battle. In the OVA version, I don't think they've mentioned the existence of this Neo Zeon fleet at all, and I think Takuya even mentions that he has no idea who the FA Unicorn is actually supposed to be fighting; it kind of seems like they just put it together and launch it for the heck of it. Maybe this is another instance where they assume that the viewer has read the novels and can fill in the rest of the plot themselves.

Incidentally, in the novels, Riddhe and the Banshee didn't show up until much later. So I'm not sure if they're even going to do the Neo Zeon fleet battle or not.

-- Mark

[zetatype]

How is this co-prosperity sphere supposed to be enforced?

At gunpoint, just like the original.

Currently the Federation forces are well equipped to handle the remnants of the Neo Zeon fleet should they try to start a conventional war (without the box).

I'm not sure that what we see in Unicorn supports that conclusion, honestly. As illogical as it is, the Sleeves have been riding pretty roughshod over the EFF. In episode 6, they disarm the EFSF's shiny-new flagship with complete impunity. In episode 4, they organize the destruction of the Earth Federation Assembly as a distraction. The Earth Federation military may be more powerful on paper, but the impression we're left with after watching Unicorn is that the Sleeves can basically do whatever they want. One wonders why the Sleeves are bothering with the box at all, if the Federation is unable to defeat them militarily anyway.

Key word being "conventional". All this time the Neo Zeon remanants and the Zeon Remnants on earth have basically been waging gurreila warfare. If all of the remaining Neo Zeon ships were to suddenly come out at once and start a conventional war then they would get wiped out simply because the Federation outnumbers them. This is why we have mostly seen small scale conflicts and no fleet battles.

While the Zeon remnants were able to attack Dakar, most of them were destroyed and the Shamblo retreated once the Londo Bell reinforcements show up. At Torrington the remnants, despite the damage they inflicted, were wiped out in the end.

Simply put the Neon Zeon remnants can't win in an all out war. All they can do is make quick surgical strikes and then retreat other wise they risk losing getting wiped out like at Torrington.

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

I'm not really sure that the term "guerrilla" can be applied to a force that includes warships and mobile suits. Certainly the Sleeves are relying on superior mobility and operational flexibility to avoid being pinned down and wiped out, but that's simply because they're up against a numerically superior foe. It's not quite the same thing as local rebels fighting against a modern military with little more than Kalashnikovs and Molotovs.

In any case, you're right in pointing out that the Earth Federation does have a greater military power overall, but the loss ratio has been overwhelmingly in the Sleeves favor so far. The Earth Federation is rather infamous for having dangerously little force projection capacity at any given time (remember when they were faced with a threat to all life on Earth and their total response was all of three ships?), and we've seen so much Federation hardware get trashed that I have a hard time convincing myself that the Sleeves aren't winning the conventional war. I suppose it's just a stylistic thing.

[Amion]

Actually, Kirby. Guerrilla warfare refers to these surgical strikes, then quickly moving back into hiding. It doesn't matter if you're a lightly armed rebel or a fully armed military with mecha like Neo-Zeon remnants.

[zetatype]

The Earth Federation is rather infamous for having dangerously little force projection capacity at any given time (remember when they were faced with a threat to all life on Earth and their total response was all of three ships?).

Wait are you referring to Char's Counterattack? And what exactly do you mean by "little force projection capacity"?

[Mythgarr]

I think he meant that the fed seems to have overconfidence for their forces or almost always send inadequate task force for problems they face.