Gundam Unicorn's Mystery Box

[toysdream]

So, now that there's an official Website, I'm starting to get a little bit more curious about this whole Gundam Unicorn thing. One of the first things that struck me as noteworthy is the name of the story's main gimmick, the mysterious "Laplace's box." This object is found in the ruins of the space station Laplace after it is destroyed by a terrorist bombing, and it apparently confers wealth and success upon its owner.

So what's in the box? Well, consider this. The original space station, and thus the box itself, is presumably named after the French mathematician and astronomer Pierre Simon de Laplace. Although best remembered for the mathematical operation known as the "Laplace transform," he is also known for his determinist philosophy, which held that the entire future of the universe could be predicted based on the current positions and motions of its constituent atoms. The term "Laplace's demon" refers to a hypothetical superintelligence which, having perfect awareness of the current state of the universe, can predict its future with perfect precision.

My hunch, then, is that "Laplace's box" contains Laplace's demon, some kind of supercomputer with the power to predict the future and thus direct the course of history...

-- Mark

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

Ignoring for the fact that determinism is silly because it ignores (or denies) the existance of free will and destroys any and all possible systems of ethics and morality...

One wonders whether or not Laplace's demon could be used to actually change the course of history, or merely predict it? By strict determinism, if one were to use Laplace's demon to "change" the future, it would only be because you were determined to do so -- and the demon would have already taken that into account when it predicted the future. I'm having visions of this being wildly misused as a sort of magic "peek into the future" box that shows how human action can change the future for the better with enough power and the will to make it happen (i.e., the demon shows some sort of unhappy, undesirable future, probably as a result of some dramatic catastrophe, and the main characters set out to stop it) -- which is the exact opposite conclusion than the one determinism comes to.

But then again, that has nothing to do with Gundam Unicorn, so I'll stop talking now.

[toysdream]

Ignoring for the fact that determinism is silly because it ignores (or denies) the existance of free will and destroys any and all possible systems of ethics and morality...

Unpleasant, perhaps, but not really "silly" since scientific determinism comes complete with an explanation for free will and morality - these would simply be illusions produced by the predictable, mechanical functioning of the human brain. What this theory doesn't account for, though, is quantum mechanics.

One wonders whether or not Laplace's demon could be used to actually change the course of history, or merely predict it?

In the original theory, I don't think the hypothetical demon is supposed to be interfering in the process. And even if it does, then its own meddling impulses should arise from the same physical laws that govern everything else in the universe, and thus be equally predictable. (If it wasn't subject to physical laws and the logic of cause and effect, I suppose it would just be God.) But this isn't even a matter of philosophy - at this point it's more like theology.

For story purposes, though, if Gundam Unicorn's "Laplace box" does turn out to be a prediction device, then I imagine it could be used to game out possible future scenarios so you can choose how best to bring them about. If it were really almighty and perfect, then its original owner wouldn't have gotten his space station blown up.

-- Mark

[Wingnut]

wiki article on the demon.
Also of note, this thing has shown up in mecha anime before. There is a computer that controls the SRW: OG mech Cybuster called the Laplace's demon computer that is said to be able to predict the future.
Weird stuff. Something you'd expect to find in an AU series rather than the UC.

[toysdream]

Thanks to Wingnut for the extra references!

I suppose there's some precedent for this kind of thing in Gundam, albeit not so much in the Universal Century. Gundam Wing's Zero System is a kind of predictive device, as are the Newtype visions in Gundam X. The "destiny" theme in Gundam Seed, though, is more about genetic determinism than actually predicting the outcome of future events. And the so-called "precognition" of Universal Century Newtypes is more like a combination of empathy and superhumanly accurate hunches.

-- Mark

[Deacon Blues]

Well I certainly don't put it past Fukui to have utilized something like this in his novels. From what I've read of his, he's always found something strange to utilize as a backstory. It would be rather interesting to see how this plays out, but something tells me that it's obviously not going to go according to plan (give where this is falling into the situation as well as other series). I know that Cardias is itching to use this thing like there is no tomorrow, so it'll be interesting to see how he works this into everything.

[Saikuba]

I feel compelled to note that this sort of idea is not new in science fiction. To me it is most reminiscient of Asimov's Foundation series (and for the record I've only read the first three books of it). At the center of that series are the predictions of the mathematician Hari Seldon, who combined a knowledge of probability, history and psychology to create "psychohistory" which relies on the laws of averages to predict the course of human society for thousands of years. It is interesting to note that there the predictions are quite impressive but not absolute, indeed the whole premise of the Foundation is to shorten the period of eventual barbarism from thirty thousand years to one thousand years (showing that it does not rely on determinism, just the predictability of large groups of people) and there are some glitches in the predictions (including one very large omission at the end of the second book).

EDIT: And actually Foundation is an interesting parallel, because the "Seldon Plan" which predicts the future is thrown off base most by a powerful psychic who had the ability to both sense and alter emotions in others. Seldon, unlike Zeon, had not predicted anything of the sort to develop and so could not account for this in his predictions. Which makes me wonder about how Newtypes would interact with this Laplace box, though of course in the UC Newtypes are much better understood (even if there are mysteries associated with them at least they are acklowedged and their abilities are understood well enough that technology can interact with them.)

As an interesting sidenote Laplace did a lot of work in probability as well, which seems a bit unusual considering his belief that everything in the future is exactly determined. But of course a deterministic world and a random world look about the same if you don't know all the forces involved, so it isn't a contradiction.

[toysdream]

I feel compelled to note that this sort of idea is not new in science fiction. To me it is most reminiscient of Asimov's Foundation series (and for the record I've only read the first three books of it). At the center of that series are the predictions of the mathematician Hari Seldon, who combined a knowledge of probability, history and psychology to create "psychohistory" which relies on the laws of averages to predict the course of human society for thousands of years.

Asimov's notion of "psychohistory" occurred to me here as well. While most predictive devices and abilities in Gundam - the Zero System, Newtype powers, and so forth - focus on short-term tactical situations, psychohistory is designed to predict the course of large-scale events and the long-term development of civilization. Both of these ideas are kind of dubious, but if this "Laplace Box" turns out to be the latter kind of magic gadget, it might explain why it can be thrown off by unexpected small-scale events like terrorist attacks and Gundam hijackings.

Of course, there's no guarantee that Gundam Unicorn is going this route, and the story's only just started. I guess this is just our own exercise in future prediction...

-- Mark

[Krogoth255]

I really think it is really a time capsule that contains a box of twinkles and a note that saids "HE IS A CHAR!".

[Ascension]

One wonders whether or not Laplace's demon could be used to actually change the course of history, or merely predict it?

In the original theory, I don't think the hypothetical demon is supposed to be interfering in the process. And even if it does, then its own meddling impulses should arise from the same physical laws that govern everything else in the universe, and thus be equally predictable. (If it wasn't subject to physical laws and the logic of cause and effect, I suppose it would just be God.) But this isn't even a matter of philosophy - at this point it's more like theology.

This question of changing the course of history brings to my mind the idea that the process of measurement alters that which is being measured. I believe, iirc, that this idea is linked hand-in-hand with quantum mechanics and doesn't mean that, say, taking a ruler to a block of wood changes its length, but when we're talking about something as off-the-wall as predicting the future, I think it might apply...

It could be that Laplace's Demon isn't intended to change future history, but that the very act of plotting out future events alters them in some way. If we ignore science completely and suppose that this alteration could be controlled in some manner, like via a powerful newtype... we have a weapon which in the short term controls probability and in the long term may contribute to the eventual defeat of an entire army or even something bigger than that. Something like that would make the mobile suit it was installed in by far the most valuable and advanced piece of machinery in existence. I imagine that it would be dormant at the beginning of the story, slowly springing to life as events progress and the protagonist's newtype powers awaken...

Except that all of that last part is pure, unadulterated guessing, mere conjecture. I don't even remember whether the protagonist of Unicorn is a newtype or not...

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

It could be that Laplace's Demon isn't intended to change future history, but that the very act of plotting out future events alters them in some way.

That's what I was getting at when I mentioned that if someone used the demon to "alter" the future, it would only be because it was determined to be so -- thus the quotations around "alter", because everything would actually be as the demon had predicted (assuming the demon is actually perfectly accurate, anyway).

[razgriz]

wow i didnt think gundam would go into such a controversial and mystic realm. newtypes is one thing, destiny engines are another. whats next? gundam pilots who are also dragonslayers?

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

wow i didnt think gundam would go into such a controversial and mystic realm.

Controversial? Maybe. True determinism, as I mentioned earlier, has the side effect of destroying any possible chance of free will (if you're merely controlled by the laws of physical reality, then free will is only an illusion, and you're controlled by the atomic makeup of your brain rather than the other way around), and thus morality, ethics, and virtue also go out the window (how can you be good or bad if you're not in control of your own actions? Even if you are good or bad, how can you be held responsible for it and praised/rewarded or condemned/punished when you had no choice but to do it?). While this may in fact be the way the universe works, the fact of the matter is that most, if not all, people are incapable of living their lives that way (and if they should... well, you can't hold it against them, because they were just determined to act that way anyway ) so it's almost not worth considering.

Mystic? Hardly. The entire point behind determinisitic philosophy is that nothing happens by chance, so with an exact knowledge of how physics works (including down to the atomic and subatomic level, and even those tricky bits about physical brain state relating to mental states of thoughts, ideas, memories, emotions, etc) and the physical state of the universe at one given moment in time, and you can extrapolate the events of the rest of existance.

[razgriz]

yeah i myself am a well moderate believer in destiny(not seed destiny ). almost everyday i say everything happens for a reason, good or bad. but i also believe in the future can be changed, that destiny can be bent to your will even if its just for a fleeting moment. even if that change was predetermined and all a part of the ultimate path. well now things r getting mystic hehe. i just hope that whatever my predetermined fate is, it isnt to die for a while and it isnt to die for a lost cause.

anyways back to the topic, im fine with controversial topics, so long as gundam doesnt get into time travel. that will be the day i throw my msias out of my car while going 75 mph on the freeway.

[Phantomexe87]

So basically this box which tells the future is the secret to the Federation;s founding? Hard to believe they could build the perfect AI that early, as AIs seem to still be quite primitive well into UC0079.

[toysdream]

So basically this box which tells the future is the secret to the Federation;s founding?

Remember, this is just speculation, inspired by the story's references to Pierre Laplace. The story itself only just started, and there's no telling what direction it's going in.

-- Mark

[razgriz]

yeah for all we know the box could contain the secret for creating stable antimatter. think of how that could turn the tide of all humanity.

[zechsbidan]

this name just rubs me the wrong way. i don't know what else to say, it just doesn't sit right.

[ninjascience]

A predictive device as envisioned by Laplace seems too far fetched for a UC series to me. Taking into account chaos theory and quantum mechanics, such a computer could not fit into a box, and logic would dictate that it would have to be at least as big as the universe itself (because the universe is the computer carrying out it's own deterministic program). Perhaps the box has more limited powers of prediction?

From what I can remember of other summaries of the series I've seen, the box is found in the ruins of the space station and becomes the property of the Vist family which had ties to terrorist groups (did Siam Vist, who found the box also blow up the station?), but becomes more of a corporate entity over time, competing with AE. Could their success be attributed to predictive powers of the box?

[Deacon Blues]

Siam is one of the people who plants the bombs on the space station. He goes into a cryogenic state and is dethawed (hah!) in the year UC0096. I can't tell whether he actually dies after coming around or not... D: