Seto Kaiba wrote:You missed one detail... Major Arad implies that it's politically difficult to deploy the federal New UN Forces in a conflict between emigrant worlds. It's not hard to see why, given that the government's relationship to its member states went from being an almost abusively powerful federation to being essentially a loose politico-economic union like the EU. They can't intervene whenever they want if they'll come off looking like they're playing favorites among member nations (worlds) in an internal conflict or be seen "bullying" an unaffiliated alien world for withdrawing from the government. The local New UN Forces, being something like a national guard militia, are left to pick up the pieces in pretty much any situation where the federal forces don't have a clear cause to intervene.
Given what previous Macross titles have told us about the federal New UN Forces hogging the best technology for themselves and only exporting stripped-down versions of their equipment to all the emigrant worlds and fleets, they could probably settle the entire conflict pretty quickly if they'd actually get off the dime. (That'd end the story right quick... and wouldn't be any fun.)
I freely admit that I don't know much about the minutia and nuance of the interrelationship and evolution of the terms NUG, NUNS and Spacy and to what extent organizations sharing those names may be less a cohesively structured singular entity than decentralized government/military planetary organizations that all share the same darn name, so I'll take the general thrust of your description at its word. That out of the way, let's discuss what we have happening...
Forty years ago, a colony fleet arrived at Windermere (briefly shown in Ep 5), which was already inhabited. They attempted to draft a trade agreement with the planet's inhabitants, and presumably they also made an effort to settle on part of the planet and integrate their society with Windermere's. The Windermerians thought these efforts were disingenuous and unfair, and 33 years later they fought a war of independence from their settlers and/or the NUG/NUNS/Spacy/whatever at large. As it has been described several times throughout the show, that war ended in an armistice and Windermere asserting its independence; at this point, it's clear Windermere is not part of any
form of NUG/NUNS/Spacy, decentralized/semi-autonomous or not.
Fast forward another seven years, this independent planet has nullified their armistice by openly declaring war against the NUG and declaring an intent to drive them out of the Brisingr Cluster (Ep 4), and they're violating other planets' (which are
part of NUG/NUNS/Spacy/whatever, decentralized or not) sovereign territory, blowing up those planets' military forces in their own territory without provocation, and are using a new wide-scale bioweapon capable of mind-control to accomplish their objective.
So... what exactly are you proposing is tying NUNS' hands? If there's even a shred of a mutual-defense clause between emigrant planets (again, something Windermere no longer qualifies as) and central NUNS forces, they aren't just not prevented from intervening in the conflict, they're obligated
to intervene. This isn't a spat between member planets over resources in neutral territory; this is a series of violent invasions and occupations by an external entity. Central Spacy wouldn't be bullying a former member, they'd be defending current members from a bully former member.
To make an imperfect comparison, this situation has a lot in common with the continuing tensions on the Korean peninsula and the theoretical situation of resuming hostilities, with Windermere = North Korea, Brisingr cluster = South Korea, and more loosely, Central Spacy = America. Technically, the Korean War never ended (also an armistice), and if North Korea launched a major offensive against South Korea, America would have a pretty hard time finding a way to stay out of it.
I'll quote the translation I've seen of Arad's answer, feel free to share another that clarifies your point: "I wouldn't bet on it. They probably think this is some minor conflict between frontier planets. Not to mention they have their own stuff to worry about. Politics is tough."
To me, this doesn't imply Spacy's legal or bureaucratic inability to intervene, it implies Spacy's reluctance to get off their asses (the gist of his response seems to be centered around the word "minor"). They're either so incompetent that they see reports of bioweapon mind-control invasions by an external entity that's directly declared war against them and mistake it for an internal squabble, or they simply give too few craps to do anything more than shrug their shoulders at the problem; whether this is out of effort-vs-reward logistical concerns or a lack of political conviction, it's ultimately a matter of not caring. Whatever the case, they aren't taking the situation anywhere near as seriously as the residents of the cluster, bringing us back to my original point that the Ragnan government has turned to Kaos in desperation, unrealistic contract in hand.
Seto Kaiba wrote:Whether it's corruption at all seems to be rather unclear... but the federal New UN Forces took the minimalist way out and opted to just blow up the essential objective in Gramia's plan before all his forces could muster to claim it. It's left to the viewer, for now, if he was collecting data for a future counterattack or because there's some ulterior motive there.
You have to admit, had it not been for that deus ex machina on Windermere's part, the federal New UN Spacy's plan would've effectively killed Gramia's plan dead.
NUNS Major Valan, smugly, upon seeing his organization's sole effort to protect the Brisingr cluster fail spectacularly: "So this is what the scientists were talking about? We've got the data, retreat immediately."
Valan clearly doesn't care about what happens to the region he's ostensibly charged with defending; whether or not he represents those who issued his orders remains to be seen, but he, at least, has ulterior motives.
Also, his explanation of the plan went something like this:
"We're going to blow up the thing the invaders are coming for."
"That thing is connected to the planet's core, we don't know what blowing it up could do to the planet. It might cause severe changes in the planet's crust."
"It's okay, we'll use a shaped charge. There shouldn't be much collateral damage to the atmosphere."
He doesn't seem very concerned about how badly things could go if his scientists were wrong, and he dodges the question about geological damage by framing his response around the atmosphere. Not exactly the person I would want setting off WMDs on my planet!
So, let's assume it worked as advertised. Would the Windermerians go:
"Oh, you blew up the thing we came for. Let's abandon our stated goal of kicking the NUG out of the cluster, ignore all of the ruins we've captured on other planets, forget about the strategic advantages we hold with our mind-control bioweapon and superior military might, and go back home to wait for NUG's retribution."
I doubt it, but that seems to be what you're suggesting they'd do. Sure, it would probably put a serious wrinkle in their over-arching strategy, but blowing up the ruins would be a delaying tactic at best. Without a more serious commitment to actually defeat Windermere, blowing up the ruins may have done more harm than good.