Could Zeon have taken Jaburo without the White base?

[drenwa_]

So basically the question is, if Ral had gotten Doms and destroyed the Gundam along with the White Base, could Zeon have taken Jaburo?

[Calubin_175]

In Gihren's Greed, they captured Luna II and launched rocks at it from its mass driver. In another version, they dropped another colony.

[battletech]

In Gihren's Greed, they captured Luna II and launched rocks at it from its mass driver. In another version, they dropped another colony.

It would be nice to get some subs on the cutscenes from those games that are on youtube.

[Zeonista]

Hmm, that's a question worth considering. By "taken" I presume you had in mind something like Char's assault on Jaburo as depicted in the anime? Nuking the base from orbit wouldn't actually take Jaburo (i.e. to capture it) so much as remove it from the EFF's war-making capability. It wouldn't cost so much in terms of battlefield assets on Earth, either. However, you said taken, and that mean Zeon boots on the ground inside of Jaburo Base. To do that the base would have to stay intact, so any Zeon battle plans that involved turning the base into a giant crater had to be set aside. (As the ZMF actually did, since the time of the invasion.)

Zeon actually did have a plan for taking it, involving specialized Marine MS that would tunnel underground, breaking into the base somewhere probably near the nuclear reactor & the associated power generators. Conventional Marine MS units would then use the tunnel to enter and engage the interior defenses in close quarter battle. At the same time, a MS strike force would attack from outside the base, splitting the base defenders. The specialized MS had not been completed by the time Char's attack took place, so he improvised by infiltrating Jaburo with the Mad Anglers MSM unit, and planting explosives in the GM storage bays. It wasn't the same level of effect, but a follow-up attack by the Mad Anglers could cause enough havoc, coupled with the disabled GMs, to leave the base defense unable to resist the exterior assault.

The presence of White Base on Earth already put Zeon behind the curve. If Ral had taken or destroyed White Base, there still would have been a crisis, because the RX-78-2's initial combat data had already been delivered to the GM development group, keeping them on schedule. The possible presence of battle-capable MS in Jaburo Base really put the ZMF on Earth under pressure. If the EFF deployed GM battalions at Jaburo a Zeon attack would fail. Hence Char's mecha-ninja program when the tunneling assault MS were not available. The Terrible Trio wrecked everything by becoming "those meddling kids" and stopping the sabotage, also coincidentally putting Jaburo Base on full alert. White Base had to be present of course for the kids to be there to ditch their babysitter and run loose, so yes it made a difference!

However, a maintenance crew might have discovered the explosives as readily as the kids in time to prevent complete disabling of the GM force. So the real lifesaver for Zeon would be for White Base to have been taken or destroyed by Char & Garma before it reached Jaburo Base the first time. Even if Operation Odessa had been successful, the lack of RX-78-2 data would have meant having to use the data from the RX--78(G) and RGM-79(G) series, which was not as good, and would probably have caused a production and/or deployment delay. Mobile forces with GMs would not have been able to exploit Odessa so much, so the specialized MS might have become available in time to do their job.

[RGM-79G GM Command]

If anything it actually may have been worse for Zeon than it already had been. The operation would be delayed, if it even happened since earth was no longer a priority considering most of their forces would be in space, which would have given the Federation more time to get the GMs ready for actual combat. Zeon only knew where the base was by following the White Base, with the White Base destroyed, Char's group wouldn't have found it and been able to get such a large force assembled for the attack.

With no one in the area to find the base like Char's group did, I'd say they'd find the base at best a month, or at least a couple weeks, later than they did in the series. So once they did eventually find Jaburo, the GMs would have been fully operational as even without the data from the RX-78-2, the data from the other production models like the RX-79 and RGM-79 [G] would have still been better than a stock machine. That or the GMs may have even been deployed in actual combat by that point and have their own combat data, along with there being more GMs to deploy and more fully trained pilots for the new GMs.

On top of the GMs being operational, they wouldn't be expecting to find Federation MS either, as they'd been surprised to see the GMs that were there. The GM pilots would have also had more time for training and likely be more skilled, and the abse may have even been alerted to an approaching Zeon attack earlier due to the fact that the entrance Char found would be unknown to the Zeon forces. As I recall more than half of the Zeon force was destroyed before landing, and it had been most of Zeon's remaining earth forces after Odessa.

So with more GMs and likely better trained pilots I think Zeon would have had a worse time at Jaburo, the main advantage they had in this battle, their aquatic models, likely wouldn't be there as the only ones they'd used were part of Char's group. Overall, while Amuro fought Char the white base forces didn't do that much, but the stuff they did do, i.e. the kids finding the bombs, wouldn't have happened anyway because the Zeon wouldn't be in the base to plant the bombs in the first place.

Or, the Federal Force could have even gone to space by the time Zeon managed to launch an attack after they find the base, which if that were the case they might be able to take the base due to the fact that most of the GMs were sent to space. Though, I'm still not sure the attack would be worth it due to the fact that they'd still take a huge amount of losses as even without the GMs, the defenders were able to fight off most of Zeon's force like they had at Odessa.

Odessa on the other hand probably would have gone worse for the Federation, I think they'd have won still, or rather that they would have destroyed most of the Zeon ground forces regardless, but with higher losses due to the traitor, which would be even worse if they were unable to stop the nuke before it hit. Like I said, I don't see Zeon winning the battle at Odessa but it may have resulted in a greater number of Federation losses as well, although the battle could have been the same, I think it would have been vastly different from what we know of Operation Odessa.

[Gelgoog Jager]

Actually, if White Base had never made it to Earth, Operation Odessa would have been postponed until later, since we are told that it was precisely the death of Garma and the disruption of the Terrestrial Attack Force's chain of command to carry on the operation after it had been previously postponed indefinitely.

In such case, the situation might have largely changed in Zeon's had they been allowed to mass produce the Dom large quanitites. After all we are told that in the actual timeline, the Dom wasn't produced in sufficient quanitites to make a difference in the battles on Earth, and unlike the Rick Dom, Doms did have a huge advantage over other MS on Earth. Basically we could think of the Dom as the equivalent of the Gelgoog in space: a top of the line unit that might have changed the tide of the war, had Zeon produced them in larger quantities.

And speaking of the Gelgoog, had Zeon actually managed to capture a Gundam or Guncannon, they would have had access to E-cap technology much sooner, therefore overcoming the large delay that Zeon had in the deployment of their own handheld beam weapon.

[Zeonista]

That's a good point, since Operation Odessa caused a disruption of many of Zeon projects, and rocked the ZMF on Earth back on the permanent defensive. A couple of extra months' delay on Odessa would have seen increased production of the Zaku-J & Dom, with maybe a greater production of Dom Tropen & Dowadge. At the same time the Gelgoog eowould be entering service in space service. Without White Base plugging Garma & reaching Jaburo, the EFF would have lost the initiative, probably for the last time. The EFF's forces in Laitn America might then have become isolated, with the ZMF moving in to take Jaburo at their leisure.

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

I think you're overestimating the White Base's contribution to the war. Yes, specific events would have gone differently had the White Base not done the things it did, but the two things that won the war for the Earth Federation were the fact that they had vastly superior industrial capacity, and the fact that the Zabis kept offing each other, neither of which were dependant on the White Base. Basically, once GMs start rolling off the assembly lines, Zeon is doomed in the long run.

The entire course of the war is Zeon hitting fast and hard and then struggling to make good on their early gains -- the One Week Battle and Operation British were an attempt to stun the Federation into surrender, and the Earth invasion was an attempt to knock the Federation out of the game before they had a chance to recover. It didn't work, and once Zeon's offensive momentum ran out, they never regain the initiative and it's all downhill for them from there. The Federation's Earth offensives are fought and won with largely conventional forces -- there were MS scattered around, but they weren't the mainstay of their army yet, and Zeon still couldn't stop them. In space, the EFSF was fielding GMs and Balls against everything from Zakus and Rick Doms to Gelgoogs and bizarre one-off mobile armors -- and they won there, too, in spite of that.

If the White Base hadn't been around, then the war effort might have been delayed, but that would have actually favored the Earth Federation. Yes, Zeon had some late-war surprises like the Gelgoog, but for every Gelgoog Zeon is rolling out, the Federation is rolling out a half-dozen GMs. For every Zaku that Zeon can upgrade to a Gelgoog, the Federation can replace three or four Balls with a GM.

The conditional surrender that Zeon was able to make after the leadership of both sides got killed before and during the battle of A Baoa Qu is really the best they could have hoped for. They managed to avoid an invasion of the Side 3 homeland, which would have been ugly and bloody for both sides, and they retained their independence rather than being forcibly brought back into the fold (as would have almost certainly happened had they been invaded and occupied). The Earth Federation is a huge force with a lot of institutional momentum -- which means that it's slow to get started, but once it's moving forward, it's damn near impossible to stop.

[Zeonista]

I think you're overestimating the White Base's contribution to the war. Yes, specific events would have gone differently had the White Base not done the things it did, but the two things that won the war for the Earth Federation were the fact that they had vastly superior industrial capacity, and the fact that the Zabis kept offing each other, neither of which were dependant on the White Base. Basically, once GMs start rolling off the assembly lines, Zeon is doomed in the long run.

I like to give heroic individuals their due, whether singularly or in groups. We can talk about grand strategy and clever tactics and positioning of logistics all day long. In the end though, none of the "big picture" factors will amount to anything without the soldiers & sailors staying in the fight. Luck also plays a bigger part in many battles than the generals and scholars would like to acknowledge. Successful leaders make their own luck of course, but sometimes events shake out in favor of one side or another at a crucial point.

The White Base, with its young crew and new MS, including the powerful Gundam, are the fulcrum point of the One Year War, just for staying alive to make it to Jaburo and give the Gundam's data to the developers. Even if they had then been promptly defeated by Ranba Ral's force, the White Base would have been justly honored as heroes of the Federation. The extra bit of luck gained by getting Garma Zabi killed (thanks to the unlooked-for factor of the certain ambition of a Zeon officer) made the technical boost of the GM production worthwhile by shaking Zeon morale at a crucial point, and giving the EFF brass the favorable circumstance to go ahead with Operation Odessa. I do think that is worth mentioning, since the resultant advantage made the attempt to capture Jaburo a desperate venture instead of deliberate conquest.

If the White Base hadn't been around, then the war effort might have been delayed, but that would have actually favored the Earth Federation. Yes, Zeon had some late-war surprises like the Gelgoog, but for every Gelgoog Zeon is rolling out, the Federation is rolling out a half-dozen GMs. For every Zaku that Zeon can upgrade to a Gelgoog, the Federation can replace three or four Balls with a GM.

The GM battalions were mighty because the GMs were given performance data from the RX-78-2 with Amuro Ray as pilot. That made the GMs true Zaku killers as their pilots gained experience and confidence in their machines. Producing GMs with pilot data from the SE Asia front or from other test unit areas wouldn't have been the same thing. The GMs would be no better than Zakus, and the introduction of improved Zeon MS & Mobile Armors would have restored the technological balance. So much for technology, now on to the human factor. The ZMF already had a number of odds-changing MS aces to take advantage of local conditions as they received new MS. And that was crucial, because the OYW anime & manga are unanimous in the view that the MS was the new battle-winning weapon. No one on either side cared about tanks or fighter planes or battleships. The all-important question was "how many MS are available?"

[Brave Fencer Kirby]

The GM battalions were mighty because the GMs were given performance data from the RX-78-2 with Amuro Ray as pilot. That made the GMs true Zaku killers as their pilots gained experience and confidence in their machines. Producing GMs with pilot data from the SE Asia front or from other test unit areas wouldn't have been the same thing. The GMs would be no better than Zakus, and the introduction of improved Zeon MS & Mobile Armors would have restored the technological balance.

The GM was mighty because it was a cheap, simple mobile suit with adequate armor and mobility plus an extremely powerful (if short ranged) armament. The beam spray gun is what won the war for the Earth Federation -- the less-powerful machine guns and slower-firing bazookas that made up the bulk of Zeon's arsenal simply couldn't compete. The GM was a vehicle for getting as many beam spray guns as possible into range of enemy targets -- a role it accomplished with aplomb.

Some Zeon suits, like the Gelgoog, were technologically superior machines, but the only real advantage the Gelgoog with its beam rifle had over the GM with its beam spray gun was longer range -- useful, but not decisive. Combine that with the fact that the EFF could field far more GMs than Zeon could Gelgoogs, and you can see that the GM was a genuine war-winner, while the Gelgoog was too little, too late. Even if the Gelgoog had been rolled out several months earlier, in time for the EFF's opening counteroffensives, the best it could have hoped for would be to hold back the initial wave of conventional forces, only to be washed away by the later tide of GMs.

Regarding the GM's performance, Amuro's combat data was certainly helpful, but it wasn't making the difference between the success and failure of the GM design -- unlike, say, Kira's modifications to the OS of the Strike. Without Kira, the Strike Dagger probably never would have come to pass. Without Amuro, the GM isn't quite as capable, but it certainly wouldn't have been a failure.

The ZMF already had a number of odds-changing MS aces to take advantage of local conditions as they received new MS. And that was crucial, because the OYW anime & manga are unanimous in the view that the MS was the new battle-winning weapon. No one on either side cared about tanks or fighter planes or battleships. The all-important question was "how many MS are available?"

Funny, then, how the Federation wins the One Year War almost entirely with conventional units. The only major campaign where the EFF had mobile suits as a major portion of its forces was the space offensive against Solomon and A Baoa Qu. MS were present for Odessa and the North American offensive, but they weren't a decisive factor in either of those battles -- most of the work was done by old-fashioned armor and air power. Even in space, GMs were outnumbered by Balls, which (while not exactly conventional space fighters like the Saberfish) are hardly proper MS.

The fact that the EFF managed to win the One Year War largely without making significant use of the GM suggests that, had the war been extended by one factor or another, the odds would have been more in their favor, not less. Zeon would have been upgrading its forces to more effective MS like the Gelgoog, sure. But the EFF would have been upgrading its forces from tanks and aircraft to MS like the GM -- a far, far more potent increase in effective fighting power.

[Tangerine]

I think to say that WB turn the war into EF favor is incorrect. Even without the Gundam's data and Amuro, the EF would still win the war in the long run. However, WB and Gundam involvement did shorten the war to some degree, if not altogether make it more smoother ride for the EF.

Still, looking at the bigger picture between the two there's no substitute for greater industrial strength. Even at its peak, Zeon Principality already has their hands full against conventional war machine the EF throw at them. Igloo 2 showed to us that makeshift anti MS weaponry prove to be plausible as a stopgap before ample number of GM could be fielded. Yes, greater numbers of Dom or faster introduction of Gelgoog could made differences in battlefield but not so much as turning the favor to Zeon's cause. Larger quantity of lower cost anti MS with adequate weaponry is winning the war be it GM, Gun-tank, Ball, or what have you. In time Zeon's industrial strength as well as their human resources will simply fail to comply with war demands.

Without Amuro ray's rx-78 data the GMs will be a more inefficient war machine. Doms and Gelgoog will wreck havoc amongst them but to what degree? This is entirely open for debate since we also know the EF could take another data from rx-78(g) in south east asia. I tend to think that the differences will not be catastrophic, without the data the GMs will still be on the same level as the Zaku or Dom. Machine and pilot will be lost in greater number but there's no shortage of trainees for the EF and in time surviving pilots will become veterans and aces of their own. Meanwhile the Zeon from the looks of it in the animation could hardly replace their precious veterans. It's also unlikely for Side 3 to produce even greater number of MS than they already had since the war started. They could opt for quality but not quantity.

However, things to be considered : The nasty things the Zeon sometimes produce is ridiculously off the scale and may endanger the whole balance in war. Things like Apsaras, Dolos and Solar Ray. One could argue that with greater number of Doms and Gelgoog available on the Earth front, the war could drag on. With more time the Zeon could produce even scarier stuff like MA that actually works and commanding officer that's actually sane to select strategically valuable targets instead of resorting to civilian mass slaughter and handed the mission over to a sane experienced pilot without backstabbing problems. Successfully deployed, such thing can change history. Like how in WW II allied successfully bombed ball bearing industries and oil refineries that crippled the German war machine production in any level, not to mention even for lubricant they resorted to expensive, harder to produce, and scarcer synthetic oil. But let's not jump further. What Zeon could possibly do also true for the EF, they could make things or improvement of their own. This leaves room for anyone's imagination.

[Gelgoog Jager]

I have some concerns about the EF's production capabilities during the war:

Atlhough before and after the war, the EF seems to unsurpassed production capabilities, I think these become severly affected after the colony drop, the constant rain of death on Earth's surface from the lunar mass drivers, but most importantly, due to the loss of California Base, which is commonly referred as the second largest production facilities on Earth only second to Jaburo, early during the war. After all, it should be noted that as soon as the EF recaptures California Base, they immediately set it in working order to mass produce new MS.

On the other hand, the Vinson plan's original goal of 340 vessels could not be met, instead we are told that only 228 vessels are commisioned, and we are further told that many of these 228 vessels ended up being support vessels such as Public and Columbus class ships, indicating that EF probably intended to build more warships such as Salamis cruisers and Magellan battleships.

I would like to comment on the number of MS, but I'm not certain what is the current consensus on that, though IIRC, at least a few sources do seem to indicate that EF had less MS than Zeon during the last stages of the war.

As for the GM, there is a catch for not getting the data from Amuro's RX-78-2: the learning computer. Regardless of Amuro's own skills, the learning computer proved to be the ace in hole for the EF's MS program. More importantly, it would seem that only units equipped with a FF-X7 Core Fighter had one, in order to improve the odds of retrieving the data. Therefore, it is questionable how much good would data from other units, such as RX-79[G], RGM-79[G] and RGM-79[E] would have been useful intead of Amuro's RX-78-2 data.

Another interesting point would be finding out if the OS for the GM was improved more than once with the RX-78-2 data, meaning that if after the initial data was obtained, the data from later battles was also added afterwards, which could possibily have continued happening until the RX-78-2 finally arrived to Jaburo and right before the EF began sending large numbers of GM into space.

Last but not least, there's the main issue of actually getting Amuro's data: the problem of the GM being an accident prone machine (the animation doesn't properly show this though). This is supposedly the result of trying to implement the RX-78-2's combat data on the GM's frame, whose lower cost implied lower quality components which couldn't handle the same stress. I suppose that the best comparison for this situation might be the RX-78-2 itself, which right before being upgraded with magnetic coating, could no longer keep up with Amuro's reflexes and whose frame became damaged when forced to maneuver beyond the machine's physical limitations. In the case of the GM, this issue was probably overcome through a large amoutn of spare parts and a large logistics effort in order to constantly repair all the faulty machines after each deployment.

Still, I do agree that in the space battles, the beam spray gun did represent a key advantage for the GM, specially against Rick Doms which Zeon had hoped would overcome their lower maneuverability through their tough armor, which while most likely capable of enduring barrages from regular machine guns, wasn't capable of withstanding a beam shot.

[Zeonista]

The ZMF already had a number of odds-changing MS aces to take advantage of local conditions as they received new MS. And that was crucial, because the OYW anime & manga are unanimous in the view that the MS was the new battle-winning weapon. No one on either side cared about tanks or fighter planes or battleships. The all-important question was "how many MS are available?"

Funny, then, how the Federation wins the One Year War almost entirely with conventional units. The only major campaign where the EFF had mobile suits as a major portion of its forces was the space offensive against Solomon and A Baoa Qu. MS were present for Odessa and the North American offensive, but they weren't a decisive factor in either of those battles -- most of the work was done by old-fashioned armor and air power. Even in space, GMs were outnumbered by Balls, which (while not exactly conventional space fighters like the Saberfish) are hardly proper MS.

The fact that the EFF managed to win the One Year War largely without making significant use of the GM suggests that, had the war been extended by one factor or another, the odds would have been more in their favor, not less. Zeon would have been upgrading its forces to more effective MS like the Gelgoog, sure. But the EFF would have been upgrading its forces from tanks and aircraft to MS like the GM -- a far, far more potent increase in effective fighting power.

You are confusing "significant numbers" with "significant effect". The EFF despite a preponderance of conventional weapons was deadlocked with the ZMF ground forces for much of the war. The reason why was the Zaku units, who despite being numerically inferior, were always moved to the hot spots. When things got critical, the Zakus were sent in to stop the EFF, which they did, due to their mobility, firepower, and the armored giant psychological effect.

The EFF had to have the GMs to win the ground war, because the GM units were reaction forces, sent to wherever the Zeon MS were operating. The GMs absorbed the Zeon MS counterattack or went on the attack the Zeon MS themselves. (The various stories make that point once the GM enters service. The Federation is finally on the attack, and all the Zeon forces are defending.) That allowed the conventional EFF forces to finish the fighting on highly favorable terms, with reduced losses. Odessa was successful, but that was because the EFF High Command on Earth was willing to accept the butcher's bill for using conventional forces to collapse Zeon's Central Asian production zone. The GMs, thanks to White Base, were coming soon, and with their arrival the Zeon MS monopoly would be broken for good. The ZMF knew it too, which was why Char Aznable emptied California Base of available MS to use in the attack on Jaburo in the anime. Jaburo had to be taken, to prevent the ships & GMs being made there from achieving victory on Earth, and then in space.

Tangerine: The IGLOO stories did show that conventional forces could hold Zakus at bay, but it also showed the high cost involved. All the EFF could do was break even, after being pushed thousands of kilometers away from the Zeon invasion landing sites. Throwing numbers at the ZMF prevented immediate defeat but it was producing a grinding war of attrition that was sapping the will of the Federation to maintain. Don't sell the White Base short, they gave the Federation a major morale boost, and allowed the GMs to be sent into battle just in time to offset the arrival of Zeon's new & improved MS. Doms & Rick Dom, H-series Gouf, Gelgoog, Zaku Cannon, Zaku G-type, Akto Zaku, Galbaldy Alpha, all of those powerful MS, all of them under-produced or not produced at all, because suddenly the Zeons found themselves without the production facilities on Earth. Those facilities which would have remained untouched and producing for Zeon if White Base hadn't shown up at Jaburo with a big victory and the RX-78 data, convincing the top brass to go for broke with Operation Odessa.

The Mobile Armors were not quite the resource drain as some (including myself) have thought them to be in the past. They were an extension of the one-man force concept of the Mobile Suit. If a squad of Zakus could let 3-4 men do the work of a 12-man fighter squadron or a 20-man tank company, then a Mobile Armor should let 1 man do the work of a cruiser squadron! (Given the Big Zam and the Elmeth, that was not a far reach....) Battlefield events, again with White Base front and center, largely kept the Mobile Armors from realizing the hopes pinned on them, but fortunately for the Federation never had to deal with Mobile Armors sniping them with bits for an entire engagement, or just strafing formations at fighter speed, mega-particle cannon blazing. But then again, Mobile Armors were not present at any attempt to take Jaburo, unless one counts the Zock, so they can't really be factored into the discussion here.

Gelgoog Jager: You are right in querying the ability of the Federation to mass-produce GMs on Earth, where the critical focus of the war was centered until late November of 0079. If Zeon had taken Jaburo before the GMs and the new ships could be assigned & distributed, that would have been the end of the war. You are quite right about the effect of the learning computer in saving Amuro's data, since that allowed the GMs to start with Amuro's Gundam performance potential intheir own GMs. He was a gifted pilot, even without his Newtype potential tossed into the mix. I don't know of any other official or semi-official character who could have done as well, and then have their data passed on to such a degree. It wasn't enough for the GM to have parity with the Zaku-J & Zaku-F, it had to be able to beat any Zaku & Dom, in technical aspects at least, and be able to match the performance of the Goufs & Gelgoogs. Skill could come with experience, it was important not to let the Zeon MS pilots take the measure of the GM units before Earth had been saved from conquest.

According to Char's Deleted Affair, the GM C units of the fleet sent to attack Axis had updated Amuro data, to the point of allowing the pilots to fairly duplicate his moves. (Maybe data was collected after the RX-78-3 episode?) So at least one update could have been made before the end of 0079 to some units. One would think after the Jaburo battle, with White Base & the RX-78-2 present, that somebody couldn't have copied the data from the learning computer right there?

[RGM-79 GM]

I have some concerns about the EF's production capabilities during the war:

Atlhough before and after the war, the EF seems to unsurpassed production capabilities, I think these become severly affected after the colony drop, the constant rain of death on Earth's surface from the lunar mass drivers, but most importantly, due to the loss of California Base, which is commonly referred as the second largest production facilities on Earth only second to Jaburo, early during the war. After all, it should be noted that as soon as the EF recaptures California Base, they immediately set it in working order to mass produce new MS.

On the other hand, the Vinson plan's original goal of 340 vessels could not be met, instead we are told that only 228 vessels are commisioned, and we are further told that many of these 228 vessels ended up being support vessels such as Public and Columbus class ships, indicating that EF probably intended to build more warships such as Salamis cruisers and Magellan battleships.

I would like to comment on the number of MS, but I'm not certain what is the current consensus on that, though IIRC, at least a few sources do seem to indicate that EF had less MS than Zeon during the last stages of the war.

As for the GM, there is a catch for not getting the data from Amuro's RX-78-2: the learning computer. Regardless of Amuro's own skills, the learning computer proved to be the ace in hole for the EF's MS program. More importantly, it would seem that only units equipped with a FF-X7 Core Fighter had one, in order to improve the odds of retrieving the data. Therefore, it is questionable how much good would data from other units, such as RX-79[G], RGM-79[G] and RGM-79[E] would have been useful intead of Amuro's RX-78-2 data.

Another interesting point would be finding out if the OS for the GM was improved more than once with the RX-78-2 data, meaning that if after the initial data was obtained, the data from later battles was also added afterwards, which could possibily have continued happening until the RX-78-2 finally arrived to Jaburo and right before the EF began sending large numbers of GM into space.

Last but not least, there's the main issue of actually getting Amuro's data: the problem of the GM being an accident prone machine (the animation doesn't properly show this though). This is supposedly the result of trying to implement the RX-78-2's combat data on the GM's frame, whose lower cost implied lower quality components which couldn't handle the same stress. I suppose that the best comparison for this situation might be the RX-78-2 itself, which right before being upgraded with magnetic coating, could no longer keep up with Amuro's reflexes and whose frame became damaged when forced to maneuver beyond the machine's physical limitations. In the case of the GM, this issue was probably overcome through a large amoutn of spare parts and a large logistics effort in order to constantly repair all the faulty machines after each deployment.

During the war the Feds production capabilities were fine, they were able to make hundreds if not thousands of GMs, regular RGM-79, in a 2-3 month period on top of making all their other units. The only time they really have issues with production is after 0083. Though that was caused by financial problems rather than a lack of production capabilities.

Yeah losing California base did affect their production capabilities but most GMs were made at Jaburo and Luna-II IIRC, which considering how many they made in a short period really shows it wasn't that big of a deal in terms of production. Even without California base their production capabilities were still significantly better than Zeon's.

Them building 228 ships instead of 340 for the V plan had more to do with time than a lack of capabilities. AFAIK there is nothing really that says they couldn't build the ships and it is simply that they didn't.

I don't have solid numbers on MS either but yeah the Zeon did have more MS, specifically the Zaku II.

Data from other MS would be extremely useful. Actual combat data being added into the MS would be much better than any pre-built computer data. Amuro's was better but it isn't like the data from other MS was bad simply because they lacked a learning computer.

Where are you getting that the GM is accident prone? The only thing I can think of that might imply that is MS IGLOO when the GMs broke down while chasing the Zudah. I forget which topic but didn't Mark say that the Zaku II has a higher breakdown rate than the GM?

Tangerine:Don't sell the White Base short, they gave the Federation a major morale boost, and allowed the GMs to be sent into battle just in time to offset the arrival of Zeon's new & improved MS. Doms & Rick Dom, H-series Gouf, Gelgoog, Zaku Cannon, Zaku G-type, Akto Zaku, Galbaldy Alpha, all of those powerful MS, all of them under-produced or not produced at all, because suddenly the Zeons found themselves without the production facilities on Earth. Those facilities which would have remained untouched and producing for Zeon if White Base hadn't shown up at Jaburo with a big victory and the RX-78 data, convincing the top brass to go for broke with Operation Odessa.

The Mobile Armors were not quite the resource drain as some (including myself) have thought them to be in the past.

Gelgoog Jager: It wasn't enough for the GM to have parity with the Zaku-J & Zaku-F, it had to be able to beat any Zaku & Dom, in technical aspects at least, and be able to match the performance of the Goufs & Gelgoogs.

Weren't the Act-Zaku and Galbaldy alpha Pezun MS? If so losing their earth bases didn't really affect them. Wait how would Whitebase show up at Jaburo and convince them to go for broke with OP Odessa? Odessa was over before they got to Jaburo.

The MA were a pretty big resource drain. They had a small crew or single pilot sure but the resources, money, and time poured into them could have been used to fix or upgrade some of their MS which would probably have been a better choice. Without the MA taking up resources and production sites they might have been able to get more Rick-Doms or Googs.

Parity? The GM outclassed the J, JC, F, and F2 in just about every way as did pretty much every other GM variant created. According to the official stats the Gouf is worse than most GMs, how accurate the stats are is another matter.

[Tangerine]

The IGLOO stories did show that conventional forces could hold Zakus at bay, but it also showed the high cost involved. All the EFF could do was break even, after being pushed thousands of kilometers away from the Zeon invasion landing sites. Throwing numbers at the ZMF prevented immediate defeat but it was producing a grinding war of attrition that was sapping the will of the Federation to maintain. Don't sell the White Base short, they gave the Federation a major morale boost, and allowed the GMs to be sent into battle just in time to offset the arrival of Zeon's new & improved MS. Doms & Rick Dom, H-series Gouf, Gelgoog, Zaku Cannon, Zaku G-type, Akto Zaku, Galbaldy Alpha, all of those powerful MS, all of them under-produced or not produced at all, because suddenly the Zeons found themselves without the production facilities on Earth. Those facilities which would have remained untouched and producing for Zeon if White Base hadn't shown up at Jaburo with a big victory and the RX-78 data, convincing the top brass to go for broke with Operation Odessa.

as RGM said it, EF big push into Odessa actually happened three weeks before Jaburo operation. Odessa happened roughly on early of November, it lasted for two days and proved conventional units can prevail against superior MS that being backed by fortress and sufficient fortification. The GMs were fielded in small numbers and only used on mop up operations. They even lacked Amuro's combat data because the data transfer seemed to happen afterwards in Jaburo facilities. Meanwhile the raid on Jaburo happened roughly on the late November. WB itself landed on Jaburo just before the raid took place. So again, even in Jaburo because of the short time from arrival to the actual raid it's also questionable whether the GM being fielded in Jaburo defence were equipped with data from the learning computer.

The air raid itself took place on that same month because Odessa has fallen and Zeon forces trying to score a death blow against the EF by betting their remaining forces into the raid. If Odessa hasn't fall then the raid will not take place at least not on the same month. It's not the other way around. WB landed on Jaburo made no consequences to the already finished Odessa campaign.

About war morale, it's the other way around with war of attrition. The longer any invasion forces need to stay on the enemy ground without clear means of achieving victory then morale was constantly decreasing. Far from home, in alien environment, gravity and such - not to mention little things like bad food, sanitation problems, humidity, sands, etc that made life uncomfortable to spacenoids. Meanwhile, it's fighting the alien invasion on their homeland for the EF forces, fighting on what we can consider their backyard, trying to settle some payback against any personal loses from Zeon WMD.

The notion that Amuro and WB is war hero that boost morale is true after the Odessa or Jaburo event. Before that they got cold reception that lasted from Luna II base and after re-entry. They never get the special treatment from the EF. Apart from General Revil and Matilda, it seemed like EF in general never really bothered about them and just send them barely enough supply or things to be tested. No better than the EF simply pray for WB to reach safe haven on their own despite their abilities to send real reinforcement or escort parties. That's not what an army did to their hero that has direct contribution to army's morale. Only after the events in Odessa that WB stopped M'quve traitor and nuke did the WB gets high on EF priory list.

I'm not sure how to respond to why the Gundam do anything to GMs being fielded just in time. To me it seemed like the EF already has a plan of their own to deploy GMs on Odessa and South East Asia that is more or less independent from WB's action except from what they did to Garma obviously.

I still wanted to argue about EF losing ground and high cost of warfare but I'll refrain from making this post too long to read or discuss.

[Zeonista]

The IGLOO stories did show that conventional forces could hold Zakus at bay, but it also showed the high cost involved. All the EFF could do was break even, after being pushed thousands of kilometers away from the Zeon invasion landing sites. Throwing numbers at the ZMF prevented immediate defeat but it was producing a grinding war of attrition that was sapping the will of the Federation to maintain. Don't sell the White Base short, they gave the Federation a major morale boost, and allowed the GMs to be sent into battle just in time to offset the arrival of Zeon's new & improved MS. Doms & Rick Dom, H-series Gouf, Gelgoog, Zaku Cannon, Zaku G-type, Akto Zaku, Galbaldy Alpha, all of those powerful MS, all of them under-produced or not produced at all, because suddenly the Zeons found themselves without the production facilities on Earth. Those facilities which would have remained untouched and producing for Zeon if White Base hadn't shown up at Jaburo with a big victory and the RX-78 data, convincing the top brass to go for broke with Operation Odessa.

So again, even in Jaburo because of the short time from arrival to the actual raid it's also questionable whether the GM being fielded in Jaburo defence were equipped with data from the learning computer.

Given the time between the first and second arrivals of White Base, there was more than enough time to copy the RX-78-2 data and load it into all the GMs being produced in Jaburo. The project would have been made priority status, so inside a month's time the RGM-79 and its variants would receive that data. The presence of RX-78-2 enhanced GM types participating in Odessa is open for debate, but possible if they were the first actual RGM-79 ground types from the Jaburo factories, not the prior RGM-79(G) models.

The air raid itself took place on that same month because Odessa has fallen and Zeon forces trying to score a death blow against the EF by betting their remaining forces into the raid. If Odessa hasn't fall then the raid will not take place at least not on the same month. It's not the other way around. WB landed on Jaburo made no consequences to the already finished Odessa campaign.

It is difficult to project alternate events based on the canon timeline, because after the success of Odessa the ZMF was preparing to abandon Earth for space, and the strike against Jaburo was indeed a desperate venture. But if Odessa was postponed again, the strategic initiative would have passed from the EFF to the ZMF, probably as soon as units armed with the new MS became available, not in piecemeal shipments as we know happened in the anime. The ZMF was not depending on conventional forces to win, and they never had since the beginning of the war. Mobile weapons and devotion to Zeonism were supposed to be the guarantors of victory. With better MS and Garma-sama's well-publicized victory over White Base to give them a boost, the Zeon ground forces would go on the attack again towards the end of the year, A Jaburo attack at that time from California Base with the Mad Anglers & maybe the specialized MS in hand, could expect to succeed where its canon counterpart had failed.

About war morale, it's the other way around with war of attrition.

By September the war was at an impasse, but it was a stalemate that favored Zeon's military, the numerically inferior force which had to date inflicted more losses than it had sustained. The ZMF had found its boundaries on Earth and space, but those boundaries were subject to change given more favorable circumstances. The EFF forces in the field were not decisively defeated, but they were not winning either, and claims of numerical superiority were rather hollow when a handful of Zakus could upset those odds in short order.

A single victory could cause changes in the strategic environment that had nothing to do with markers on the maps; anyone who has studied the history of war knows how quickly things can change if one side gets a lucky break, or who prepares for an operation and finds that enemy overconfidence has turned marginal victory into a decisive victory. Without the turning-point, the Federation could easily have joined the long historical record of large nations beaten by a smaller one. As Voltaire corrected himself on an earlier saying, "victory does not always go to the side with the larger battalions."

The initial cool reception to White Base wasn't directed at them as people per se, it was the natural reaction of a military force which had seen too much bad news and needed some real good news. The fact that White Base was mainly run by young men who weren't old enough to shave regularly doubtless caused some amazement. But that's what made White Base a crew of heroes; they were too young to be cowed by odds against them or the gravity of the strategic environment. Bright Noah didn't know it, but by stubbornly defying the odds and sticking to his mission come what may, he was duplicating the attitude that had gained Zeon victories in the past....and he was doing it with a Newtype ace pilot, no less! Zeon of course did not appreciate the irony.

[RGM-79 GM]

Why are you talking about Garma beating Whitebase? The OP's circumstances are after Garma was killed. So there is no way he could beat Whitebase.

If anything the stalemate favored the Feds. The longer a stalemate went on the longer they had to develop and build MS. Zeon could not afford to play the waiting game as they lacked the numbers of the Feds, their logistics sucked, and their blitzkrieg attack had stalled forcing them into a situation Gihren had been trying to avoid. Since he knew they couldn't win in a long drawn out fight. The Zeon military lacked resources and had trouble keeping everyone supplied. The stalemate made that worse while letting the Feds build up their forces.

[HalfDemonInuyasha]

Basically, it's another WWII reference in terms of production capability and the likes.

I also wonder, did Char really just take an opportunity to attack Jaburo the way he did because it really would've helped? Or was it another deception of his against Zeon, knowing that the units made for such an attack weren't ready and that such an attack otherwise would most likely fail, thus costing Zeon even more of its forces and resources?

[Tangerine]

It is difficult to project alternate events based on the canon timeline, because after the success of Odessa the ZMF was preparing to abandon Earth for space, and the strike against Jaburo was indeed a desperate venture. But if Odessa was postponed again, the strategic initiative would have passed from the EFF to the ZMF, probably as soon as units armed with the new MS became available, not in piecemeal shipments as we know happened in the anime. The ZMF was not depending on conventional forces to win, and they never had since the beginning of the war. Mobile weapons and devotion to Zeonism were supposed to be the guarantors of victory. With better MS and Garma-sama's well-publicized victory over White Base to give them a boost, the Zeon ground forces would go on the attack again towards the end of the year, A Jaburo attack at that time from California Base with the Mad Anglers & maybe the specialized MS in hand, could expect to succeed where its canon counterpart had failed.

Postponed or not, everywhere it's the Zeon forces that being harassed into returning back to their stronghold. The Earth Invasion forces lost their momentum by spreading too far and too thin trying to hold the vast area they conquered. Meanwhile the EF was able to afford such loses, be it man, machine or kilometers of land. The Zeon Military simply bogged down and once the death toll and MS readiness number began to drop below the minimum threshold they lost momentum and were forced to defend their vital assets such as mining facility in Odessa. By this point even if Odessa campaign was postponed again, Zeon won't be able to easily turn the tide of the war. The initiative has shifted to EF that bid their time to mature their strategy.

The situation is akin to how Allied forces in WW II take their time before the D day on Normandy. The 3rd Reich has lost their initiative after many lost skirmishes on North African, Greece and Italy; they even bogged down on eastern campaign. However game changing war machine the 3rd Reich had at their disposal, like the Jet engine fighter, King tiger tanks, or even silent run XII Uboats. That won’t be enough to turn the tide because we know rushed production run almost certain to be available in low number, in lower than standard quality, with new unknown problems be of their own, inadequate training or scare spare parts. They simply can't perform under such circumstances. In UC, even the battle proven Zaku II got issue of their own with their supposedly low operation rating. Of course in terms of warfare a complete divisional level upgrade from Zaku to freshly made Dom to all units in Odessa should be a game changing but such thing is unlikely given the information we know about the situation on both sides. Even General Revil said in his speech that Zeon is exhausted (after Loum), and that’s long before Odessa campaign.

By September the war was at an impasse, but it was a stalemate that favored Zeon's military, the numerically inferior force which had to date inflicted more losses than it had sustained. The ZMF had found its boundaries on Earth and space, but those boundaries were subject to change given more favorable circumstances. The EFF forces in the field were not decisively defeated, but they were not winning either, and claims of numerical superiority were rather hollow when a handful of Zakus could upset those odds in short order.

I really wanted to avoid long discussion. The stalemate wasn’t in favor for Zeon military. For the forces that almost winning from day one of invasion that led to conquering most of major cities on Earth to be bogged down and eventually stopped doesn’t show it was doing okay or be in its advantage. You said about dealing more losses than it had sustained but the same is true to real world history about US forces in Vietnam. The VC get extremely high losses number but despite that they still resist and eventually prevail. This is clearly not about war efficiency but rather about which side can afford and willing to pay for such losses to remain on the battlefield.

As Voltaire corrected himself on an earlier saying, "victory does not always go to the side with the larger battalions."

Good quotation there, but that doesn’t mean numerical superiority can’t win. I’m sure you also agree that the side that deploy most gargantuan war machine doesn’t necessarily translate into the side that surely winning the war either.

Ultimately, the publication and animation showed that Odessa was lost to conventional war machine despite their odds against the previously shown unbeatable MS forces. Your arguments that few Zakus could upset this numerical superiority of conventional war machine failed their test at Odessa. You should ask why, since we know the GMs factor is small. Publication supported that GMs being fielded there were in very small numbers and only did smaller activities than mop up operations.

Furthermore, I think my points stand that after Loum, and even from the previous Operation British the Principality already losing many more than they would acknowledge be it man power, machine or logistics. Loum itself was a pyrrhic victory, the Zeon MS corps paid dearly for the winning. In contrast the EF may lose their space fleet but still keeping their ground forces intact on Earth. You said about victories that may change the battle, but Zeon belted countless of victories after they landed and conquer most of major cities on Earth. What else would you want to cite? Eventually, they still get tangled upon war of attrition that ended up with them unable to do anything than getting into defensive position and hoping that the next technological breakthrough may turn the favor again to their side. That simply unlikely to happen despite the hypothetical Odessa postpone.

[Dark Duel]

I would say personally that the longer the war dragged on, the worse the odds would get for Zeon, simply because they are so much smaller than the Federation in terms of manpower and resources. Meaning that in a war of attrition, Zeon will lose, almost guaranteed.